HubSpot, Inc.
HUBS · Technology · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
41
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
52
Momentum
40
Fundamental
67
Macro
22
Liquidity
73
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 51.8 | 30% |
| Momentum | 39.6 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 66.7 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 73.2 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 204.96 |
| Stop Loss | 176.70 (13.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 233.22 (+13.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 261.48 (+27.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 14.13 (6.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 28.26 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 20.8 | -1.17 | |
| Momentum | 36.0 | -0.56 | |
| Quality | 33.4 | -0.66 | |
| Composite | 30.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.5 | 28.0 | +77% above |
| P/B Ratio | 6.2 | 6.0 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.8% | Below avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
95.38
vs
Market Price
204.96
Upside
-53.5%
| Margin of Safety | -114.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 1,007,916,774 |
| Terminal Value PV | 3,650,034,852 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 4,657,951,626 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 161,746,361 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 17.1% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
25.82%
Full Kelly
12.91%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 41/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.5%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
35.28
RSI(14)
-1.7263
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
54
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+2.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (9d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -8.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 35.28 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -1.7263 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 233.07 / 229.81 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 2.63x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 406.94 |
| Bollinger Upper | 272.75 |
| SMA(200) | 229.81 |
| SMA(50) | 233.07 |
| SMA(20) | 238.09 |
| Current Price | 204.96 |
| Bollinger Lower | 203.43 |
| 52-Week Low | 169.63 |
| ATR(14) | 14.13 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION A
Confidence
50%
Selling Climax
Acc: 2.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.75x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.64x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.13x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Stopping Volume | 3.32x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.63x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 237.29 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 237.29 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 237.29 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 230.81 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 230.81 – 237.29 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 204.96 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 217.45 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 203.43 – 272.75 | KC: 217.5 – 258.69
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 222.46
Anchor: 2026-06-25 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-7.9%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/HUBS
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 10.01B |
| P/E (TTM) | 49.51 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 6.15 |
| EPS | 4.14 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 17.1% |
| Profit Margin | 5.9% |
| ROE | 12.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 13.77 |
| Current Ratio | 1.34 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.14 |
Trading Data
204.96
Open
204.96
Day High
204.96
Day Low
3.37M
Volume (2.2x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)