Illinois Tool Works Inc.

ITW · Industrials · · USD

270.12 USD

0.00 (-0.56%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 68

Momentum 52

Fundamental 56

Macro 64

Liquidity 50

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	67.9	30%
Momentum	51.9	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	49.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	270.12
Stop Loss	259.20 (4.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	281.04 (+4.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	291.96 (+8.1%)

ATR(14)	5.46 (2.0%)
Risk per Share	10.92
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	28.4	-0.86
Momentum	51.9	+0.08
Quality	58.7	+0.35
Composite	46.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	24.4	18.0	+36% above
P/B Ratio	26.6	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	2.5%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

162.61

Market Price

270.12

Upside

-39.8%

Margin of Safety	-66.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	11,618,354,766
Terminal Value PV	34,693,423,668
Total Enterprise Value	46,311,778,434

Assumptions

Base FCF	2,517,631,832
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

38.85%

Full Kelly

19.42%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 59/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

35.73

RSI(14)

-3.1735

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+2.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+7.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	35.73	NEUTRAL
Macd	-3.1735	BEARISH
Ma Cross	280.16 / 264.72	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.07x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	303.16
Bollinger Upper	298.56
SMA(200)	264.72
SMA(50)	280.16
SMA(20)	282.61
Current Price	270.12
Bollinger Lower	266.66
52-Week Low	238.82
ATR(14)	5.46

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.28x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.11x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.71x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.0x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	276.08	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	283.21	Base line
Senkou A	279.64	Leading span A
Senkou B	281.06	Leading span B
Cloud	279.64 – 281.06	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	270.12	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	286.95	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH