Illinois Tool Works Inc.
ITW · Industrials · · USDFahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)
77
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
68
Momentum
61
Fundamental (0%)
44
Macro
54
Liquidity
63
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 67.8 | 20% |
| Momentum | 60.9 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 44.4 | 0% |
| Macro | 54.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 62.9 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 280.95 |
| Stop Loss | 267.01 (5.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 294.89 (+5.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 308.83 (+9.9%) |
| ATR(14) | 6.97 (2.5%) |
| Risk per Share | 13.94 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 27.7 | -0.89 | |
| Momentum | 60.9 | +0.44 | |
| Quality | 60.5 | +0.42 | |
| Composite | 49.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.1 | 18.0 | +39% above |
| P/B Ratio | 25.4 | 3.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
153.46
vs
Market Price
280.95
Upside
-45.4%
| Margin of Safety | -83.1% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 11,218,086,602 |
| Terminal Value PV | 32,396,656,248 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 43,614,742,850 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,548,705,613 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 4.4% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
49.88%
Full Kelly
24.94%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 77/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
53.96
RSI(14)
4.4796
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
44
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+0.7% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 1d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | +3.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 53.96 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 4.4796 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 271.06 / 268.57 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.33x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 303.16 |
| Bollinger Upper | 292.3 |
| SMA(200) | 268.57 |
| SMA(50) | 271.06 |
| SMA(20) | 277.3 |
| Current Price | 280.95 |
| Bollinger Lower | 262.3 |
| 52-Week Low | 238.82 |
| ATR(14) | 6.97 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.08x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.19x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.11x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 1.33x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 282.53 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 277.81 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 280.17 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 276.43 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 276.43 – 280.17 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 280.95 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 262.92 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 262.3 – 292.3 | KC: 267.04 – 287.55
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 264.94
Anchor: 2025-11-18 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+6.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ITW
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 79.85B |
| P/E (TTM) | 25.06 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 25.42 |
| EPS | 11.21 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 4.4% |
| Profit Margin | 19.4% |
| ROE | 1.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 298.28 |
| Current Ratio | 1.29 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.94 |
Trading Data
280.95
Open
280.95
Day High
280.95
Day Low
1.73M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)