Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
KDP · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
61
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
96
Momentum
80
Fundamental
50
Macro
24
Liquidity
71
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 96.4 | 10% |
| Momentum | 79.7 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 50.1 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 71.1 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 35.79 |
| Stop Loss | 33.67 (5.9%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 37.91 (+5.9%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 40.03 (+11.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.06 (3.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 2.12 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 55.7 | +0.23 | |
| Momentum | 79.7 | +1.19 | |
| Quality | 22.3 | -1.11 | |
| Composite | 52.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
1.68
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.2 | 18.0 | +85% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.0 | 2.5 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
34.60
vs
Market Price
36.89
Upside
-6.2%
| Margin of Safety | -6.6% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 9,285,106,132 |
| Terminal Value PV | 37,798,978,786 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 47,084,084,918 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,208,514,826 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
40.36%
Full Kelly
20.18%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 61/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
58.3
RSI(14)
1.1049
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS
90
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+28.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +15.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
STRONG RS:
Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 58.3 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.1049 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 32.76 / 29.87 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.01x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 37.89 |
| Bollinger Upper | 37.27 |
| SMA(200) | 29.87 |
| SMA(50) | 32.76 |
| SMA(20) | 34.89 |
| Current Price | 36.89 |
| Bollinger Lower | 32.5 |
| 52-Week Low | 24.88 |
| ATR(14) | 1.06 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
56%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 2.5 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.84x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.91x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.64x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.33x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.01x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 36.09 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 34.05 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 35.06 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 33.98 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 33.98 – 35.06 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 35.79 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 30.37 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 32.5 – 37.27 | KC: 33.37 – 36.4
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 28 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 31.04
Anchor: 2026-04-06 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+15.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/KDP
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 50.21B |
| P/E (TTM) | 33.23 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.97 |
| EPS | 1.11 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 70.6% |
| Profit Margin | 7.1% |
| ROE | 6.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 96.17 |
| Current Ratio | 0.52 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.35 |
Trading Data
36.89
Open
36.89
Day High
36.89
Day Low
23.14M
Volume (1.8x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)