Li Auto Inc.

LI · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

18.87 USD

+0.00 (4.83%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 12:51 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 33

Momentum 57

Fundamental (0%) 53

Macro 65

Liquidity 67

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	33.1	20%
Momentum	56.9	20%
Fundamental	52.9	0%
Macro	65.1	15%
Liquidity	66.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	18.87
Stop Loss	17.79 (5.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	19.95 (+5.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	21.03 (+11.4%)

ATR(14)	0.54 (2.9%)
Risk per Share	1.08
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	43.2	-0.27
Momentum	51.7	+0.07
Quality	27.6	-0.90
Composite	40.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 1.96 — Grey Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	117.9	18.0	+555% above
P/B Ratio	1.8	2.5	Below

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

1.98

Market Price

18.87

Upside

-89.5%

Margin of Safety	-855.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	444,118,454
Terminal Value PV	1,221,167,242
Total Enterprise Value	1,665,285,696

Assumptions

Base FCF	107,918,591
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

33.3%

Full Kelly

16.65%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 51/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 8.1%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

60.73

RSI(14)

-0.0187

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-4.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (21d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+19.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	60.73	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.0187	BULLISH
Ma Cross	17.94 / 20.08	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	2.0x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	32.02
Bollinger Upper	19.02
SMA(200)	20.08
SMA(50)	17.94
SMA(20)	18.16
Current Price	18.87
Bollinger Lower	17.3
52-Week Low	15.71
ATR(14)	0.54

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Normal	0.61x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06	Normal	1.03x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.98x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	2.0x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	18.21	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	18.42	Base line
Senkou A	18.32	Leading span A
Senkou B	18.09	Leading span B
Cloud	18.09 – 18.32	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	18.87	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	18.46	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	BULLISH