Lam Research Corporation
LRCX · Technology · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
43
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
45
Momentum
2
Fundamental
89
Macro
54
Liquidity
78
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 45.2 | 30% |
| Momentum | 2.5 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 88.9 | 10% |
| Macro | 54.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 78.4 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 200.44 |
| Stop Loss | 167.10 (16.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 233.78 (+16.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 267.12 (+33.3%) |
| ATR(14) | 16.67 (8.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 33.34 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 21.6 | -1.14 | |
| Momentum | 2.3 | -1.91 | |
| Quality | 80.4 | +1.22 | |
| Composite | 34.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
45.18
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.9 | 28.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 18.0 | 6.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 66.0% | 0.8% | Above avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
209.14
vs
Market Price
200.44
Upside
+4.3%
| Margin of Safety | +4.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 51,612,156,109 |
| Terminal Value PV | 210,109,261,628 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 261,721,417,737 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 6,717,645,975 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
26.86%
Full Kelly
13.43%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 43/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
30.37
RSI(14)
-24.5485
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING
50
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-29.9% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (25d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -18.0% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING:
Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 30.37 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -24.5485 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 284.26 / 283.63 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.35x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 438.50 |
| Bollinger Upper | 312.22 |
| SMA(200) | 283.63 |
| SMA(50) | 284.26 |
| SMA(20) | 249.34 |
| Current Price | 200.44 |
| Bollinger Lower | 186.45 |
| 52-Week Low | 135.50 |
| ATR(14) | 16.67 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
64%
Sign of Weakness
Selling Climax
Acc: 2.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 3.5
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.85x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.81x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.09x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.36x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 1.35x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 222.41 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 268.40 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 245.40 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 268.40 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 245.40 – 268.40 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 200.44 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 347.49 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH FADING
BB: 186.45 – 312.22 | KC: 224.4 – 274.27
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 264.61
Anchor: 2025-11-21 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-24.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/LRCX
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 250.84B |
| P/E (TTM) | 29.87 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 18.00 |
| EPS | 6.71 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 54.4% |
| Profit Margin | 32.3% |
| ROE | 70.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 26.86 |
| Current Ratio | 2.48 |
| Dividend Yield | 66.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 2.01 |
Trading Data
200.44
Open
200.44
Day High
200.44
Day Low
17.93M
Volume (1.8x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)