Lam Research Corporation

LRCX · Technology · · USD

307.65 USD

+0.00 (5.12%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 74

Momentum 61

Fundamental (0%) 89

Macro 64

Liquidity 56

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	73.8	20%
Momentum	61.4	20%
Fundamental	88.9	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	56.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	307.65
Stop Loss	274.91 (10.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	340.39 (+10.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	373.13 (+21.3%)

ATR(14)	16.37 (5.3%)
Risk per Share	32.74
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	0.0	-2.00
Momentum	61.4	+0.46
Quality	81.1	+1.24
Composite	47.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 60.63 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	53.5	28.0	+91% above
P/B Ratio	30.9	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	43.0%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

179.22

Market Price

307.65

Upside

-41.7%

Margin of Safety	-71.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	44,224,349,593
Terminal Value PV	180,034,048,945
Total Enterprise Value	224,258,398,538

Assumptions

Base FCF	5,756,076,600
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

39.11%

Full Kelly

19.56%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 60/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

48.91

RSI(14)

-5.7159

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-3.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Technology)
RS New High	No (47d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+7.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	48.91	NEUTRAL
Macd	-5.7159	BEARISH
Ma Cross	321.88 / 260.68	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.12x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	438.50
Bollinger Upper	342.68
SMA(200)	260.68
SMA(50)	321.88
SMA(20)	312.76
Current Price	307.65
Bollinger Lower	282.84
52-Week Low	104.46
ATR(14)	16.37

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.1x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.65x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.97x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	299.73	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	311.06	Base line
Senkou A	305.39	Leading span A
Senkou B	344.50	Leading span B
Cloud	305.39 – 344.50	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	307.65	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	293.02	Bullish
Alignment Score	1/4	NEUTRAL