Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
MAA · Real Estate · · USDFahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)
40
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
39
Momentum
42
Fundamental
39
Macro
24
Liquidity
64
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 39.0 | 10% |
| Momentum | 42.1 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 38.6 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 64.2 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 118.75 |
| Stop Loss | 113.55 (4.4%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 123.95 (+4.4%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 129.15 (+8.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.60 (2.2%) |
| Risk per Share | 5.20 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 51.8 | +0.07 | |
| Momentum | 42.1 | -0.32 | |
| Quality | 29.6 | -0.82 | |
| Composite | 41.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
1.64
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.9 | 18.0 | +105% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.7 | 1.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0% | 4.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
40.74
vs
Market Price
121.69
Upside
-66.5%
| Margin of Safety | -198.7% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 1,264,453,173 |
| Terminal Value PV | 3,476,794,941 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 4,741,248,114 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 307,255,877 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
25.08%
Full Kelly
12.54%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 40/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.4%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
50.55
RSI(14)
0.3774
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
47
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-4.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Real Estate) |
| RS New High | No (53d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -10.0% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 50.55 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.3774 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 119.15 / 125.83 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.02x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 144.41 |
| Bollinger Upper | 122.33 |
| SMA(200) | 125.83 |
| SMA(50) | 119.15 |
| SMA(20) | 117.87 |
| Current Price | 121.69 |
| Bollinger Lower | 113.42 |
| 52-Week Low | 113.95 |
| ATR(14) | 2.6 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.21x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.14x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.37x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.94x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 0.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 120.21 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 118.48 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 119.34 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 121.80 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 119.34 – 121.80 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 118.75 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 113.74 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 2/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 113.42 – 122.33 | KC: 114.2 – 121.55
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 23 | |
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 24 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 117.70
Anchor: 2026-10-08 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+0.9%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/MAA
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 14.52B |
| P/E (TTM) | 36.88 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.67 |
| EPS | 3.30 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 1.0% |
| Profit Margin | 17.4% |
| ROE | 6.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 108.00 |
| Current Ratio | 0.06 |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.70 |
Trading Data
121.69
Open
121.69
Day High
121.69
Day Low
1.79M
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)