Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.

MAA · Real Estate · · USD

128.32 USD

0.00 (-0.19%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 38

Momentum 47

Fundamental 44

Macro 64

Liquidity 37

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	10%
Trend & RS	38.3	10%
Momentum	47.0	5%
Fundamental	44.4	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	36.6	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	128.32
Stop Loss	124.10 (3.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	132.54 (+3.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	136.76 (+6.6%)

ATR(14)	2.11 (1.6%)
Risk per Share	4.22
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	52.2	+0.09
Momentum	47.0	-0.12
Quality	30.1	-0.79
Composite	43.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	37.4	18.0	+108% above
P/B Ratio	2.7	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	4.8%	4.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

42.34

Market Price

128.32

Upside

-67.0%

Margin of Safety	-203.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	1,343,388,053
Terminal Value PV	3,693,837,682
Total Enterprise Value	5,037,225,735

Assumptions

Base FCF	326,436,663
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

27.49%

Full Kelly

13.75%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 43/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

39.5

RSI(14)

-1.2862

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-10.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Real Estate)
RS New High	No (60d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-3.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	39.5	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.2862	BEARISH
Ma Cross	133.38 / 129.91	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.76x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	145.80
Bollinger Upper	134.55
SMA(200)	129.91
SMA(50)	133.38
SMA(20)	130.95
Current Price	128.32
Bollinger Lower	127.35
52-Week Low	120.30
ATR(14)	2.11

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.18x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.94x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.96x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Spring	0.76x	Price broke below support then recovered on low volume — potential reversal

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	130.46	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	132.34	Base line
Senkou A	131.40	Leading span A
Senkou B	135.21	Leading span B
Cloud	131.40 – 135.21	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	128.32	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	132.34	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH