McDonald's Corporation
MCD · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)
46
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
42
Momentum
54
Fundamental (0%)
67
Macro
24
Liquidity
67
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 41.7 | 20% |
| Momentum | 54.2 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 66.6 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 66.7 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 269.95 |
| Stop Loss | 257.73 (4.5%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 282.17 (+4.5%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 294.39 (+9.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 6.11 (2.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 12.22 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 55.0 | +0.20 | |
| Momentum | 54.2 | +0.17 | |
| Quality | 84.8 | +1.39 | |
| Composite | 64.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
3
/9 —
Weak
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
4.99
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.0 | 18.0 | +22% above |
| P/B Ratio | -192.3 | 2.5 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
156.04
vs
Market Price
278.04
Upside
-43.9%
| Margin of Safety | -78.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 29,447,804,847 |
| Terminal Value PV | 80,970,953,262 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 110,418,758,109 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 7,155,671,161 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
29.59%
Full Kelly
14.79%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 46/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
64.94
RSI(14)
7.626
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
29
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+4.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 2d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | -1.9% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 64.94 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 7.626 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 248.57 / 279.6 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.12x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 341.75 |
| Bollinger Upper | 278.79 |
| SMA(200) | 279.6 |
| SMA(50) | 248.57 |
| SMA(20) | 252.75 |
| Current Price | 278.04 |
| Bollinger Lower | 226.71 |
| 52-Week Low | 229.20 |
| ATR(14) | 6.11 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION A
Confidence
75%
Buying Climax
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.2x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.13x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 2.14x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.36x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 0.12x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 265.07 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 255.67 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 260.37 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 255.67 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 255.67 – 260.37 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 269.95 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 231.89 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 226.71 – 278.79 | KC: 243.98 – 261.51
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 22 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 249.03
Anchor: 2026-10-05 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+8.4%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/MCD
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 196.75B |
| P/E (TTM) | 22.00 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | -192.28 |
| EPS | 12.64 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 1.1% |
| Profit Margin | 32.4% |
| ROE | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | N/A |
| Current Ratio | N/A |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.43 |
Trading Data
278.04
Open
278.04
Day High
278.04
Day Low
7.29M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)