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McDonald's Corporation

MCD · Consumer Cyclical · · USD
255.69 USD
0.00 (-1.52%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 21:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)

23
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 26
Momentum 28
Fundamental (0%) 65
Macro 64
Liquidity 56
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 40%
Trend & RS 25.9 20%
Momentum 28.2 20%
Fundamental 64.8 0%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 56.5 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 255.69
Stop Loss 246.13 (3.7%)
Target 1 (1:1) 265.25 (+3.7%)
Target 2 (2:1) 274.81 (+7.5%)
ATR(14) 4.78 (1.9%)
Risk per Share 9.56
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 58.0 +0.32
Momentum 28.2 -0.87
Quality 50.0 +0.00
Composite 45.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 3 /9 — Weak
✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 4.81 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 20.8 18.0 +16% above
P/B Ratio -176.8 2.5 Inline
Dividend Yield 2.9% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
163.41
vs
Market Price
255.69
Upside
-36.1%
Margin of Safety -56.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)30,054,787,352
Terminal Value PV85,581,562,800
Total Enterprise Value115,636,350,152

Assumptions

Base FCF6,963,192,665
Growth Rate (5yr)3.7%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.24%
Recommended Size
9.42%
Full Kelly
4.71%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 23/100. Estimated win rate 47%, avg win 6.4%, avg loss 4.5%. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
35.68
RSI(14)
-2.813
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

27
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-12.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High No (60d since high)
Sector Outperformance -12.5% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 35.68 NEUTRAL
Macd -2.813 BEARISH
Ma Cross 267.72 / 291.84 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.01x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High341.75
Bollinger Upper275.8
SMA(200)291.84
SMA(50)267.72
SMA(20)265.59
Current Price255.69
Bollinger Lower255.39
52-Week Low255.49
ATR(14)4.78

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.25x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.88x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.22x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.09x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.01x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 263.08 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 265.95 Base line
Senkou A 264.52 Leading span A
Senkou B 270.28 Leading span B
Cloud 264.52 – 270.28 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 255.69 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 268.73 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 255.39 – 275.8  |  KC: 258.59 – 272.6

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 15
Hidden Bearish RSI 29

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 269.38 Anchor: 2026-06-11 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -5.1%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/MCD

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap180.94B
P/E (TTM)20.79
Forward P/EN/A
P/B-176.83
EPS12.30

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth3.7%
Profit Margin31.7%
ROEN/A
Debt/EquityN/A
Current Ratio1.08
Dividend Yield2.9%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.41

Trading Data

255.69
Open
255.69
Day High
255.69
Day Low
4.18M
Volume (0.9x avg)

Recent News (8)

McDonald's (MCD) Exit From A 90% Restaurant Stake Still Haunts Investors
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-06
McDonald’s India Drama Erupts While Wall Street Targets 24% Stock Rally
BeInCrypto · 2026-09-06
McDonald's Once Owned 90% Of A Popular Restaurant Chain. Selling It Left Billions On The Table
Money Digest · 2026-09-06
McDonald's Has Raised Its Dividend Every Year Since 1976. Here Are 3 Reasons I'd Buy It and Never Sell.
Motley Fool · 2026-09-06
The S&P 500's Yield Is at Historic Lows. Here Are 3 Dividend Stocks I'd Buy in September.
Motley Fool · 2026-09-06
Inflation Odds Move Toward 100%
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-04
Warren Buffett Says Greatness Isn’t About ‘Great Amounts of Money’ — Despite a $140B Net Worth, He Drives a 2014 Cadillac and Eats McDonald’s
Benzinga · 2026-09-04
Academy Moves Forward With Lee, Wolski-David
MediaPost · 2026-09-04

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —