McDonald's Corporation

MCD · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

256.00 USD

+0.00 (0.12%)

● Updated 2026-09-08 21:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 27

Momentum 30

Fundamental 33

Macro 65

Liquidity 46

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	20%
Trend & RS	26.7	30%
Momentum	30.1	15%
Fundamental	33.3	10%
Macro	64.7	20%
Liquidity	46.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	255.90
Stop Loss	246.66 (3.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	265.13 (+3.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	274.38 (+7.2%)

ATR(14)	4.62 (1.8%)
Risk per Share	9.24
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	64.9	+0.59
Momentum	30.1	-0.80
Quality	50.0	+0.00
Composite	48.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 3 /9 — Weak

✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	20.8	18.0	+16% above
P/B Ratio	-177.0	2.5	Inline
Dividend Yield	2.9%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

163.41

Market Price

256.00

Upside

-36.2%

Margin of Safety	-56.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	30,054,787,685
Terminal Value PV	85,581,563,753
Total Enterprise Value	115,636,351,438

Assumptions

Base FCF	6,963,192,743
Growth Rate (5yr)	3.7%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

17.02%

Full Kelly

8.51%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 31/100. Estimated win rate 49%, avg win 6.9%, avg loss 4.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

36.08

RSI(14)

-3.1042

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-11.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (61d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-4.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	36.08	NEUTRAL
Macd	-3.1042	BEARISH
Ma Cross	267.48 / 291.64	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.54x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	341.75
Bollinger Upper	275.44
SMA(200)	291.64
SMA(50)	267.48
SMA(20)	264.8
Current Price	256.00
Bollinger Lower	254.16
52-Week Low	254.33
ATR(14)	4.62

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.26x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.13x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.04x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-08	Spring	0.54x	Price broke below support then recovered on low volume — potential reversal

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	260.75	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	265.37	Base line
Senkou A	263.06	Leading span A
Senkou B	269.70	Leading span B
Cloud	263.06 – 269.70	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	255.90	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	263.36	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH