McDonald's Corporation
MCD · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
40
/ 100
Technical
33
Trend & RS
44
Momentum
59
Fundamental
33
Macro
22
Liquidity
67
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 33.3 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 44.5 | 30% |
| Momentum | 59.1 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 33.3 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 66.7 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 278.04 |
| Stop Loss | 266.16 (4.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 289.92 (+4.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 301.80 (+8.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.94 (2.1%) |
| Risk per Share | 11.88 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 62.2 | +0.49 | |
| Momentum | 59.1 | +0.36 | |
| Quality | 84.8 | +1.39 | |
| Composite | 68.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
3
/9 —
Weak
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.0 | 18.0 | +22% above |
| P/B Ratio | -192.3 | 2.5 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
156.04
vs
Market Price
278.04
Upside
-43.9%
| Margin of Safety | -78.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 29,447,805,307 |
| Terminal Value PV | 80,970,954,522 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 110,418,759,829 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 7,155,671,273 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
24.76%
Full Kelly
12.38%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 40/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.4%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary SELL
2
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
75.9
RSI(14)
7.4558
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
36
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+7.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +0.6% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 75.9 | OVERBOUGHT |
| Macd | 7.4558 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 248.33 / 279.75 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | UPPER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.29x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 341.75 |
| Bollinger Upper | 276.85 |
| SMA(200) | 279.75 |
| SMA(50) | 248.33 |
| SMA(20) | 251.01 |
| Current Price | 278.04 |
| Bollinger Lower | 225.17 |
| 52-Week Low | 229.20 |
| ATR(14) | 5.94 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION A
Confidence
75%
Buying Climax
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.15x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.14x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.08x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 2.04x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.29x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 265.06 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 255.67 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 260.37 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 255.67 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 255.67 – 260.37 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 278.04 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 231.83 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 225.17 – 276.85 | KC: 242.63 – 259.39
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 21 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 248.94
Anchor: 2026-10-05 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+11.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/MCD
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 196.75B |
| P/E (TTM) | 22.00 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | -192.28 |
| EPS | 12.64 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 1.1% |
| Profit Margin | 32.4% |
| ROE | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | N/A |
| Current Ratio | N/A |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.43 |
Trading Data
278.04
Open
278.04
Day High
278.04
Day Low
7.29M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)