MGM Resorts International
MGM · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score STRONG SELL Mid-term (Position)
28
/ 100
Technical
20
Trend & RS
33
Momentum
31
Fundamental
25
Macro
24
Liquidity
53
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 20.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 33.3 | 30% |
| Momentum | 31.2 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 25.0 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 53.1 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 32.54 |
| Stop Loss | 30.02 (7.7%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 35.06 (+7.7%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 37.58 (+15.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.26 (3.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 2.52 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 66.8 | +0.67 | |
| Momentum | 31.2 | -0.75 | |
| Quality | 40.9 | -0.36 | |
| Composite | 46.3 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
3
/9 —
Weak
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✗
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
0.83
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.5 | 18.0 | -30% below |
| P/B Ratio | 3.3 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
27.83
vs
Market Price
32.54
Upside
-14.5%
| Margin of Safety | -16.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 2,109,927,124 |
| Terminal Value PV | 4,930,625,252 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 7,040,552,376 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 526,261,938 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
14.58%
Full Kelly
7.29%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 28/100. Estimated win rate 49%, avg win 6.7%, avg loss 4.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
58.41
RSI(14)
-0.5375
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
33
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-21.9% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (61d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -28.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 58.41 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -0.5375 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 33.86 / 38.99 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | UPPER BAND | |
| Volume | 0.97x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 51.59 |
| Bollinger Upper | 32.23 |
| SMA(200) | 38.99 |
| SMA(50) | 33.86 |
| SMA(20) | 29.42 |
| Current Price | 32.54 |
| Bollinger Lower | 26.61 |
| 52-Week Low | 26.71 |
| ATR(14) | 1.26 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.64x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.3x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.38x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.4x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 0.97x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 29.98 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 29.98 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 29.98 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 35.23 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 29.98 – 35.23 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 32.54 | Inside Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 30.47 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 26.61 – 32.23 | KC: 27.63 – 31.21
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 30.44
Anchor: 2026-10-29 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+6.9%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/MGM
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 8.23B |
| P/E (TTM) | 12.52 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.27 |
| EPS | 2.60 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -0.9% |
| Profit Margin | 3.9% |
| ROE | 26.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 880.33 |
| Current Ratio | 1.24 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.32 |
Trading Data
32.54
Open
32.54
Day High
32.54
Day Low
5.86M
Volume (1.4x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)