MGM Resorts International

MGM · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

41.22 USD

+0.00 (0.22%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:34 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 54

Momentum 48

Fundamental 44

Macro 64

Liquidity 36

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	10%
Trend & RS	53.6	10%
Momentum	48.4	5%
Fundamental	44.4	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	36.1	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	41.22
Stop Loss	39.42 (4.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	43.02 (+4.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	44.82 (+8.7%)

ATR(14)	0.90 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	1.80
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	58.7	+0.35
Momentum	48.4	-0.06
Quality	35.5	-0.58
Composite	47.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	25.0	18.0	+39% above
P/B Ratio	4.1	2.5	Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

20.37

Market Price

41.22

Upside

-50.6%

Margin of Safety	-102.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	1,389,837,470
Terminal Value PV	3,821,557,003
Total Enterprise Value	5,211,394,473

Assumptions

Base FCF	337,723,642
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

30.57%

Full Kelly

15.29%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 47/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

32.21

RSI(14)

-1.0111

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-17.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-17.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	32.21	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.0111	BEARISH
Ma Cross	44.95 / 39.59	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.8x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	51.59
Bollinger Upper	45.18
SMA(200)	39.59
SMA(50)	44.95
SMA(20)	42.93
Current Price	41.22
Bollinger Lower	40.68
52-Week Low	29.19
ATR(14)	0.9

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.21x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.09x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	42.19	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	43.38	Base line
Senkou A	42.78	Leading span A
Senkou B	45.58	Leading span B
Cloud	42.78 – 45.58	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	41.22	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	44.57	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH