Molina Healthcare, Inc.

MOH · Healthcare · · USD

231.23 USD

0.00 (-0.37%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:08 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 96

Momentum 90

Fundamental 56

Macro 65

Liquidity 31

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	20%
Trend & RS	96.4	30%
Momentum	90.5	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	65.2	20%
Liquidity	30.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	232.82
Stop Loss	215.62 (7.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	250.02 (+7.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	267.22 (+14.8%)

ATR(14)	8.60 (3.7%)
Risk per Share	17.20
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	37.1	-0.52
Momentum	90.5	+1.62
Quality	27.4	-0.91
Composite	51.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	61.8	22.0	+181% above
P/B Ratio	3.0	4.0	Below

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

46.17

Market Price

231.23

Upside

-80.0%

Margin of Safety	-400.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	641,507,659
Terminal Value PV	1,763,917,102
Total Enterprise Value	2,405,424,761

Assumptions

Base FCF	155,883,193
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

50.73%

Full Kelly

25.37%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 79/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.7%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

71.32

RSI(14)

11.6939

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+49.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 9d since high
Sector Outperformance	+55.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	71.32	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	11.6939	BULLISH
Ma Cross	198.91 / 171.12	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.1x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	243.50
Bollinger Upper	248.23
SMA(200)	171.12
SMA(50)	198.91
SMA(20)	215.24
Current Price	231.23
Bollinger Lower	182.24
52-Week Low	121.06
ATR(14)	8.6

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

50%

Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.02x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Supply	0.1x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	232.75	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	211.89	Base line
Senkou A	222.32	Leading span A
Senkou B	208.11	Leading span B
Cloud	208.11 – 222.32	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	232.82	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	184.82	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH