Marathon Petroleum Corporation
MPC · Energy · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
59
/ 100
Technical
60
Trend & RS
79
Momentum
66
Fundamental
56
Macro
24
Liquidity
62
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 60.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 79.2 | 30% |
| Momentum | 66.5 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 61.7 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 377.32 |
| Stop Loss | 336.50 (10.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 418.14 (+10.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 458.96 (+21.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 20.41 (5.4%) |
| Risk per Share | 40.82 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 76.3 | +1.05 | |
| Momentum | 66.5 | +0.66 | |
| Quality | 54.6 | +0.18 | |
| Composite | 65.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.5 | 10.0 | -25% below |
| P/B Ratio | 4.5 | 1.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% | 4.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Energy median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
1573.06
vs
Market Price
377.32
Upside
+316.9%
| Margin of Safety | +76.0% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 84,465,151,671 |
| Terminal Value PV | 343,851,371,247 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 428,316,522,918 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 10,993,669,495 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
38.85%
Full Kelly
19.42%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 59/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
3
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
31.12
RSI(14)
-5.001
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
97
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+31.9% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Energy) |
| RS New High | No (16d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +16.4% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 31.12 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -5.001 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 421.56 / 294.18 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.43x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 493.98 |
| Bollinger Upper | 508.32 |
| SMA(200) | 294.18 |
| SMA(50) | 421.56 |
| SMA(20) | 450.82 |
| Current Price | 377.32 |
| Bollinger Lower | 393.31 |
| 52-Week Low | 161.93 |
| ATR(14) | 20.41 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.92x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.27x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.23x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.79x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.43x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 427.42 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 435.23 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 431.32 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 420.83 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 420.83 – 431.32 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 377.32 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 420.15 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 393.31 – 508.32 | KC: 420.54 – 481.09
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 17 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 286.33
Anchor: 2025-12-31 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+31.8%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/MPC
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 102.74B |
| P/E (TTM) | 7.48 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 4.47 |
| EPS | 50.47 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 60.9% |
| Profit Margin | 8.3% |
| ROE | 60.5% |
| Debt/Equity | 115.42 |
| Current Ratio | 1.45 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.51 |
Trading Data
377.32
Open
377.32
Day High
377.32
Day Low
3.22M
Volume (1.2x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)