Marathon Petroleum Corporation

MPC · Energy · · USD

285.10 USD

+0.00 (0.64%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:09 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 96

Momentum 90

Fundamental (0%) 56

Macro 65

Liquidity 39

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	40%
Trend & RS	95.6	20%
Momentum	89.9	20%
Fundamental	55.6	0%
Macro	65.2	15%
Liquidity	39.2	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	283.88
Stop Loss	267.57 (5.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	300.18 (+5.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	316.48 (+11.5%)

ATR(14)	8.15 (2.9%)
Risk per Share	16.30
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	61.1	+0.44
Momentum	89.9	+1.60
Quality	40.3	-0.39
Composite	63.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	18.8	10.0	+88% above
P/B Ratio	5.0	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.4%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

250.14

Market Price

285.10

Upside

-12.3%

Margin of Safety	-14.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	17,629,055,064
Terminal Value PV	55,395,293,620
Total Enterprise Value	73,024,348,684

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,545,278,630
Growth Rate (5yr)	8.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

56.23%

Full Kelly

28.11%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 89/100. Estimated win rate 67%, avg win 10.3%, avg loss 3.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

69.72

RSI(14)

7.0296

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+16.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance	+22.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

STRONG RS: Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	69.72	NEUTRAL
Macd	7.0296	BULLISH
Ma Cross	256.05 / 211.62	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.14x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	287.15
Bollinger Upper	284.8
SMA(200)	211.62
SMA(50)	256.05
SMA(20)	259.62
Current Price	285.10
Bollinger Lower	234.45
52-Week Low	158.00
ATR(14)	8.15

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.78x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.05x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.78x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Demand	0.14x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	270.97	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	262.71	Base line
Senkou A	266.84	Leading span A
Senkou B	255.20	Leading span B
Cloud	255.20 – 266.84	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	283.88	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	267.21	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH