Marathon Petroleum Corporation

MPC · Energy · · USD

279.57 USD

0.00 (-1.31%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 19:09 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 95

Momentum 88

Fundamental 69

Macro 71

Liquidity 39

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	10%
Trend & RS	95.2	10%
Momentum	87.6	5%
Fundamental	69.0	40%
Macro	71.2	15%
Liquidity	39.1	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	278.38
Stop Loss	261.49 (6.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	295.29 (+6.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	312.19 (+12.1%)

ATR(14)	8.45 (3.0%)
Risk per Share	16.90
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	62.9	+0.52
Momentum	87.6	+1.50
Quality	40.3	-0.39
Composite	63.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 4.12 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	18.4	10.0	+84% above
P/B Ratio	4.9	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.4%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

250.14

Market Price

279.57

Upside

-10.5%

Margin of Safety	-11.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	17,629,054,395
Terminal Value PV	55,395,291,519
Total Enterprise Value	73,024,345,914

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,545,278,495
Growth Rate (5yr)	8.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

45.74%

Full Kelly

22.87%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 70/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

64.2

RSI(14)

6.5916

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+14.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 1d since high
Sector Outperformance	+21.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	64.2	NEUTRAL
Macd	6.5916	BULLISH
Ma Cross	255.94 / 211.59	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.27x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	287.15
Bollinger Upper	283.51
SMA(200)	211.59
SMA(50)	255.94
SMA(20)	259.35
Current Price	279.57
Bollinger Lower	235.19
52-Week Low	158.00
ATR(14)	8.45

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.04x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.78x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.27x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	270.97	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	262.71	Base line
Senkou A	266.84	Leading span A
Senkou B	255.20	Leading span B
Cloud	255.20 – 266.84	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	278.38	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	267.21	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH