Marathon Petroleum Corporation

MPC · Energy · · USD

388.90 USD

+0.00 (0.31%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:36 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 100

Momentum 97

Fundamental 78

Macro 64

Liquidity 51

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	20%
Trend & RS	99.6	30%
Momentum	96.6	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	51.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	388.90
Stop Loss	366.92 (5.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	410.88 (+5.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	432.86 (+11.3%)

ATR(14)	10.99 (2.8%)
Risk per Share	21.98
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	66.6	+0.66
Momentum	96.6	+1.86
Quality	50.8	+0.03
Composite	71.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 5.00 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	13.5	10.0	+35% above
P/B Ratio	5.8	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.0%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

899.52

Market Price

388.90

Upside

+131.3%

Margin of Safety	+56.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	49,814,595,083
Terminal Value PV	202,791,523,937
Total Enterprise Value	252,606,119,020

Assumptions

Base FCF	6,483,682,128
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

53.48%

Full Kelly

26.74%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 84/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 10.0%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

78.24

RSI(14)

19.0551

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+44.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 2d since high
Sector Outperformance	+29.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	78.24	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	19.0551	BULLISH
Ma Cross	321.36 / 240.31	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.73x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	398.52
Bollinger Upper	396.51
SMA(200)	240.31
SMA(50)	321.36
SMA(20)	362.31
Current Price	388.90
Bollinger Lower	328.1
52-Week Low	161.93
ATR(14)	10.99

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.42x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.94x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	373.10	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	344.04	Base line
Senkou A	358.57	Leading span A
Senkou B	319.04	Leading span B
Cloud	319.04 – 358.57	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	388.90	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	315.61	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH