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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.

MPWR · Technology · · USD
1223.86 USD
+0.00 (0.84%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 21:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)

40
/ 100
Technical 25
Trend & RS 50
Momentum 42
Fundamental (0%) 89
Macro 64
Liquidity 47
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 25.0 40%
Trend & RS 50.5 20%
Momentum 42.0 20%
Fundamental 88.9 0%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 46.7 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 1223.86
Stop Loss 1110.44 (9.3%)
Target 1 (1:1) 1337.28 (+9.3%)
Target 2 (2:1) 1450.70 (+18.5%)
ATR(14) 56.71 (4.6%)
Risk per Share 113.42
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 0.0 -2.00
Momentum 42.0 -0.32
Quality 77.7 +1.11
Composite 39.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 1908.75 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 74.6 28.0 +166% above
P/B Ratio 15.4 6.0 Above
Dividend Yield 65.0% 0.8% Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
511.16
vs
Market Price
1223.86
Upside
-58.2%
Margin of Safety -139.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)4,953,707,847
Terminal Value PV20,166,177,435
Total Enterprise Value25,119,885,282

Assumptions

Base FCF644,756,160
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
25.17%
Full Kelly
12.58%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 40/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.4%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
38.39
RSI(14)
-37.5536
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

63
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-21.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector INLINE (Technology)
RS New High No (57d since high)
Sector Outperformance -11.0% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 38.39 NEUTRAL
Macd -37.5536 BEARISH
Ma Cross 1328.45 / 1247.97 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.1x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High1714.09
Bollinger Upper1448.39
SMA(200)1247.97
SMA(50)1328.45
SMA(20)1313.0
Current Price1223.86
Bollinger Lower1177.61
52-Week Low830.00
ATR(14)56.71

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.21x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.33x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.71x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.72x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.1x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 1260.74 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 1378.85 Base line
Senkou A 1319.80 Leading span A
Senkou B 1378.85 Leading span B
Cloud 1319.80 – 1378.85 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 1223.86 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 1426.03 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 1177.61 – 1448.39  |  KC: 1238.01 – 1387.98

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bearish RSI 18

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 1216.43 Anchor: 2025-09-12 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +0.6%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/MPWR

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap60.14B
P/E (TTM)74.63
Forward P/EN/A
P/B15.44
EPS16.40

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth47.6%
Profit Margin24.5%
ROE22.0%
Debt/Equity0.49
Current Ratio4.97
Dividend Yield65.0%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.66

Trading Data

1223.86
Open
1223.86
Day High
1223.86
Day Low
625.9K
Volume (0.7x avg)

Recent News (8)

Monolithic Power Revenue Jumped 48%. Can AI Power Chips Keep the Momentum Going?
Insider Monkey · 2026-09-05
What Is The Market Really Expecting From MPWR Stock?
Trefis · 2026-09-04
Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights MACOM Technology, Monolithic Power and Semtech
Zacks · 2026-09-02
Lam Research, Monolithic Power Systems, Texas Instruments, FormFactor, and Amkor Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know
StockStory · 2026-09-01
Buy Analog-Mixed Signal Players MACOM, Monolithic & Semtech
Zacks · 2026-09-01
Monolithic Surges 54% in Past Year: Should You Jump on the Bandwagon?
Zacks · 2026-09-01
Q2 Analog Semiconductors Earnings Review: First Prize Goes to Monolithic Power Systems (NASDAQ:MPWR)
StockStory · 2026-08-26
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Nvidia's, Valero, Lumentum and Monolithic Power
Zacks · 2026-08-25

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —