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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.

MPWR · Technology · · USD
1226.50 USD
+0.00 (0.22%)
● Updated 2026-09-08 21:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

50
/ 100
Technical 25
Trend & RS 52
Momentum 42
Fundamental 78
Macro 65
Liquidity 38
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 25.0 20%
Trend & RS 52.5 30%
Momentum 41.6 15%
Fundamental 77.8 10%
Macro 64.7 20%
Liquidity 38.2 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 1227.10
Stop Loss 1118.10 (8.9%)
Target 1 (1:1) 1336.10 (+8.9%)
Target 2 (2:1) 1445.10 (+17.8%)
ATR(14) 54.50 (4.4%)
Risk per Share 109.00
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 0.0 -2.00
Momentum 41.6 -0.34
Quality 77.7 +1.11
Composite 39.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 74.8 28.0 +167% above
P/B Ratio 15.5 6.0 Above
Dividend Yield 65.0% 0.8% Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
511.16
vs
Market Price
1226.50
Upside
-58.3%
Margin of Safety -139.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)4,953,707,829
Terminal Value PV20,166,177,363
Total Enterprise Value25,119,885,192

Assumptions

Base FCF644,756,158
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
32.21%
Full Kelly
16.1%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 50/100. Estimated win rate 55%, avg win 8.0%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
38.96
RSI(14)
-37.8399
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

68
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-25.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High No (58d since high)
Sector Outperformance -14.3% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 38.96 NEUTRAL
Macd -37.8399 BEARISH
Ma Cross 1326.77 / 1249.84 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.53x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High1714.09
Bollinger Upper1441.89
SMA(200)1249.84
SMA(50)1326.77
SMA(20)1305.3
Current Price1226.50
Bollinger Lower1168.7
52-Week Low830.00
ATR(14)54.5

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-09-01 Normal 1.35x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.72x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.74x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.12x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-08 No Demand 0.53x Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 1260.74 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 1327.24 Base line
Senkou A 1293.99 Leading span A
Senkou B 1378.85 Leading span B
Cloud 1293.99 – 1378.85 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 1227.10 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 1344.37 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 1168.7 – 1441.89  |  KC: 1232.19 – 1378.4

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bearish RSI 19

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 1216.46 Anchor: 2025-09-12 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +0.9%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/MPWR

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap60.27B
P/E (TTM)74.79
Forward P/EN/A
P/B15.47
EPS16.40

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth47.6%
Profit Margin24.5%
ROE22.0%
Debt/Equity0.49
Current Ratio4.97
Dividend Yield65.0%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.66

Trading Data

1226.50
Open
1226.50
Day High
1226.50
Day Low
286.7K
Volume (0.3x avg)

Recent News (8)

Monolithic Power Revenue Jumped 48%. Can AI Power Chips Keep the Momentum Going?
Insider Monkey · 2026-09-05
What Is The Market Really Expecting From MPWR Stock?
Trefis · 2026-09-04
Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights MACOM Technology, Monolithic Power and Semtech
Zacks · 2026-09-02
Lam Research, Monolithic Power Systems, Texas Instruments, FormFactor, and Amkor Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know
StockStory · 2026-09-01
Buy Analog-Mixed Signal Players MACOM, Monolithic & Semtech
Zacks · 2026-09-01
Monolithic Surges 54% in Past Year: Should You Jump on the Bandwagon?
Zacks · 2026-09-01
Q2 Analog Semiconductors Earnings Review: First Prize Goes to Monolithic Power Systems (NASDAQ:MPWR)
StockStory · 2026-08-26
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Nvidia's, Valero, Lumentum and Monolithic Power
Zacks · 2026-08-25

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —