Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
MPWR · Technology · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
39
/ 100
Technical
0
Trend & RS
45
Momentum
25
Fundamental
78
Macro
54
Liquidity
66
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 0.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 45.3 | 30% |
| Momentum | 24.8 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 10% |
| Macro | 54.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 65.8 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 1190.44 |
| Stop Loss | 1038.94 (12.7%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 1341.94 (+12.7%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 1493.44 (+25.4%) |
| ATR(14) | 75.75 (6.4%) |
| Risk per Share | 151.50 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0.0 | -2.00 | |
| Momentum | 24.8 | -1.01 | |
| Quality | 76.1 | +1.04 | |
| Composite | 33.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 65.3 | 28.0 | +133% above |
| P/B Ratio | 15.6 | 6.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 67.0% | 0.8% | Above avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
568.51
vs
Market Price
1190.44
Upside
-52.2%
| Margin of Safety | -109.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 5,467,447,838 |
| Terminal Value PV | 22,257,574,863 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 27,725,022,701 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 711,622,643 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
24.18%
Full Kelly
12.09%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 39/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.4%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
45.01
RSI(14)
-25.4715
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING
75
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-9.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (24d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +2.8% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING:
Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 45.01 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -25.4715 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 1266.58 / 1317.57 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.11x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 1714.09 |
| Bollinger Upper | 1342.54 |
| SMA(200) | 1317.57 |
| SMA(50) | 1266.58 |
| SMA(20) | 1229.59 |
| Current Price | 1190.44 |
| Bollinger Lower | 1116.64 |
| 52-Week Low | 833.18 |
| ATR(14) | 75.75 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION A
Confidence
50%
Selling Climax
Acc: 2.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.17x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.21x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.14x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.43x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 1.11x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 1244.18 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 1308.32 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 1276.25 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 1308.32 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 1276.25 – 1308.32 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 1190.44 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 1439.73 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH FADING
BB: 1116.64 – 1342.54 | KC: 1117.76 – 1341.42
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 1267.04
Anchor: 2025-11-21 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-6.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/MPWR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 58.06B |
| P/E (TTM) | 65.27 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 15.56 |
| EPS | 18.24 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 63.1% |
| Profit Margin | 23.9% |
| ROE | 24.5% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.57 |
| Current Ratio | 3.70 |
| Dividend Yield | 67.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.73 |
Trading Data
1190.44
Open
1190.44
Day High
1190.44
Day Low
1.20M
Volume (1.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)