Microsoft Corporation
MSFT · Technology · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
71
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
95
Momentum
80
Fundamental
67
Macro
24
Liquidity
84
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 95.2 | 30% |
| Momentum | 80.1 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 66.7 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 83.9 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 535.93 |
| Stop Loss | 504.81 (5.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 567.05 (+5.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 598.17 (+11.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 15.56 (2.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 31.12 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 32.6 | -0.70 | |
| Momentum | 72.8 | +0.91 | |
| Quality | 69.7 | +0.79 | |
| Composite | 58.4 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.0 | 28.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 8.5 | 6.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 73.0% | 0.8% | Above avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
471.71
vs
Market Price
535.93
Upside
-12.0%
| Margin of Safety | -13.6% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 742,344,518,451 |
| Terminal Value PV | 2,760,654,251,252 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 3,502,998,769,703 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 113,828,705,267 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 18.8% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
46.46%
Full Kelly
23.23%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 71/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.3%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
54.46
RSI(14)
4.7142
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS
87
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+12.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Technology) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +1.7% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
STRONG RS:
Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 54.46 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 4.7142 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 516.13 / 438.43 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.68x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 559.15 |
| Bollinger Upper | 551.61 |
| SMA(200) | 438.43 |
| SMA(50) | 516.13 |
| SMA(20) | 531.63 |
| Current Price | 535.93 |
| Bollinger Lower | 511.65 |
| 52-Week Low | 349.20 |
| ATR(14) | 15.56 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
100%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 2.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.42x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.38x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.79x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 2.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.68x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 532.05 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 532.05 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 532.05 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 521.73 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 521.73 – 532.05 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 535.93 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 512.80 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE ON
7 bars
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 511.65 – 551.61 | KC: 509.83 – 553.43
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bullish | RSI | 15 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 460.92
Anchor: 2026-06-25 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+16.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/MSFT
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 3979.92B |
| P/E (TTM) | 27.97 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 8.46 |
| EPS | 19.16 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 18.8% |
| Profit Margin | 41.2% |
| ROE | 34.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 28.46 |
| Current Ratio | 1.23 |
| Dividend Yield | 73.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.04 |
Trading Data
535.93
Open
535.93
Day High
535.93
Day Low
41.56M
Volume (1.8x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)