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Microsoft Corporation

MSFT · Technology · · USD
385.10 USD
+0.00 (0.19%)
● Updated 2026-07-11 20:36 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

43
/ 100
Technical 25
Trend & RS 26
Momentum 35
Fundamental 67
Macro 75
Liquidity 57
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 25.0 20%
Trend & RS 26.3 30%
Momentum 35.3 15%
Fundamental 66.7 10%
Macro 74.8 20%
Liquidity 56.8 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 385.10
Stop Loss 361.16 (6.2%)
Target 1 (1:1) 409.04 (+6.2%)
Target 2 (2:1) 432.98 (+12.4%)
ATR(14) 11.97 (3.1%)
Risk per Share 23.94
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 46.4 -0.15
Momentum 35.3 -0.59
Quality 69.7 +0.79
Composite 50.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 22.9 28.0 -18% below
P/B Ratio 6.9 6.0 Above
Dividend Yield 95.0% 0.8% Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value
405.40
vs
Market Price
385.10
Upside
+5.3%
Margin of Safety +5.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)642,081,148,481
Terminal Value PV2,369,407,568,392
Total Enterprise Value3,011,488,716,873

Assumptions

Base FCF99,778,743,165
Growth Rate (5yr)18.3%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
26.94%
Full Kelly
13.47%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 43/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
47.56
RSI(14)
-5.4879
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

28
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-7.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High No (54d since high)
Sector Outperformance -15.5% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 47.56 NEUTRAL
Macd -5.4879 BULLISH
Ma Cross 403.33 / 440.71 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.51x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High555.45
Bollinger Upper403.38
SMA(200)440.71
SMA(50)403.33
SMA(20)380.51
Current Price385.10
Bollinger Lower357.65
52-Week Low349.20
ATR(14)11.97

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence
100%
Buying Climax
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 2.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-06 Normal 0.71x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07 Normal 0.61x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 0.54x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 Normal 0.65x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10 Normal 0.51x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 377.74 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 394.79 Base line
Senkou A 386.26 Leading span A
Senkou B 407.76 Leading span B
Cloud 386.26 – 407.76 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 385.10 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 427.34 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH
BB: 357.65 – 403.38  |  KC: 362.14 – 398.89

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bearish RSI 6
Hidden Bearish MACD 6

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 374.12 Anchor: 2026-06-25 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +2.9%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/MSFT

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap2860.69B
P/E (TTM)22.94
Forward P/EN/A
P/B6.90
EPS16.79

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth18.3%
Profit Margin39.3%
ROE34.0%
Debt/Equity30.27
Current Ratio1.28
Dividend Yield95.0%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.13

Trading Data

385.10
Open
385.10
Day High
385.10
Day Low
24.11M
Volume (0.6x avg)

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Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —