Microsoft Corporation

MSFT · Technology · · USD

499.70 USD

0.00 (-2.04%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:32 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 82

Momentum 83

Fundamental (0%) 67

Macro 64

Liquidity 54

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	40%
Trend & RS	82.2	20%
Momentum	83.1	20%
Fundamental	66.7	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	54.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	499.70
Stop Loss	476.06 (4.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	523.34 (+4.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	546.98 (+9.5%)

ATR(14)	11.82 (2.4%)
Risk per Share	23.64
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	33.1	-0.68
Momentum	83.1	+1.32
Quality	69.6	+0.79
Composite	61.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	27.9	28.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	8.4	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	73.0%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

423.14

Market Price

499.70

Upside

-15.3%

Margin of Safety	-18.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	674,867,369,629
Terminal Value PV	2,467,181,769,176
Total Enterprise Value	3,142,049,138,805

Assumptions

Base FCF	106,571,435,078
Growth Rate (5yr)	17.7%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

48.91%

Full Kelly

24.46%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 75/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.5%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

59.6

RSI(14)

15.4834

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+15.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (5d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+26.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	59.6	NEUTRAL
Macd	15.4834	BEARISH
Ma Cross	443.56 / 429.37	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.79x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	553.72
Bollinger Upper	516.08
SMA(200)	429.37
SMA(50)	443.56
SMA(20)	495.34
Current Price	499.70
Bollinger Lower	474.6
52-Week Low	349.20
ATR(14)	11.82

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.18x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.05x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	501.04	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	483.13	Base line
Senkou A	492.09	Leading span A
Senkou B	433.16	Leading span B
Cloud	433.16 – 492.09	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	499.70	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	463.85	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH