Microsoft Corporation

MSFT · Technology · · USD

408.21 USD

0.00 (-1.08%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 22:47 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 42

Momentum 40

Fundamental 83

Macro 62

Liquidity 57

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	20%
Trend & RS	41.7	30%
Momentum	40.1	15%
Fundamental	83.3	10%
Macro	62.2	20%
Liquidity	57.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	408.08
Stop Loss	386.64 (5.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	429.52 (+5.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	450.96 (+10.5%)

ATR(14)	10.72 (2.6%)
Risk per Share	21.44
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	44.1	-0.24
Momentum	40.1	-0.39
Quality	69.7	+0.79
Composite	51.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 16.49 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	24.3	28.0	-13% below
P/B Ratio	7.3	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	88.0%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

405.64

Market Price

408.21

Upside

-0.6%

Margin of Safety	-0.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	642,463,514,342
Terminal Value PV	2,370,818,574,723
Total Enterprise Value	3,013,282,089,065

Assumptions

Base FCF	99,838,162,422
Growth Rate (5yr)	18.3%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

30.42%

Full Kelly

15.21%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 47/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

49.19

RSI(14)

4.3134

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-8.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (46d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-8.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	49.19	NEUTRAL
Macd	4.3134	BEARISH
Ma Cross	398.74 / 463.38	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.62x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	555.45
Bollinger Upper	432.34
SMA(200)	463.38
SMA(50)	398.74
SMA(20)	418.31
Current Price	408.21
Bollinger Lower	404.27
52-Week Low	356.28
ATR(14)	10.72

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.0x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	1.02x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	0.62x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	413.00	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	400.13	Base line
Senkou A	406.56	Leading span A
Senkou B	394.99	Leading span B
Cloud	394.99 – 406.56	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	408.08	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	372.29	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH