Northrop Grumman Corporation

NOC · Industrials · · USD

514.98 USD

0.00 (-2.51%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 50

Momentum 23

Fundamental 67

Macro 64

Liquidity 51

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	20%
Trend & RS	49.9	30%
Momentum	23.1	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	51.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	514.98
Stop Loss	489.06 (5.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	540.90 (+5.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	566.82 (+10.1%)

ATR(14)	12.96 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	25.92
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	68.5	+0.74
Momentum	23.1	-1.08
Quality	44.7	-0.21
Composite	45.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	16.4	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	4.1	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.9%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

443.88

Market Price

514.98

Upside

-13.8%

Margin of Safety	-16.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	16,052,505,118
Terminal Value PV	47,006,657,873
Total Enterprise Value	63,059,162,991

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,576,578,612
Growth Rate (5yr)	5.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

25.17%

Full Kelly

12.58%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 40/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.4%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

34.62

RSI(14)

-6.6541

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-9.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Industrials)
RS New High	No (13d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-5.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	34.62	NEUTRAL
Macd	-6.6541	BEARISH
Ma Cross	541.54 / 597.69	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.35x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	774.00
Bollinger Upper	596.96
SMA(200)	597.69
SMA(50)	541.54
SMA(20)	554.11
Current Price	514.98
Bollinger Lower	511.27
52-Week Low	479.02
ATR(14)	12.96

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.13x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.29x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.35x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	531.82	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	552.18	Base line
Senkou A	542.00	Leading span A
Senkou B	534.33	Leading span B
Cloud	534.33 – 542.00	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	514.98	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	540.02	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	BEARISH