Norfolk Southern Corporation
NSC · Industrials · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
61
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
65
Momentum
49
Fundamental
64
Macro
24
Liquidity
89
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 65.1 | 10% |
| Momentum | 48.7 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 64.1 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 88.7 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 320.99 |
| Stop Loss | 306.43 (4.5%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 335.55 (+4.5%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 350.11 (+9.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 7.28 (2.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 14.56 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 53.5 | +0.14 | |
| Momentum | 48.7 | -0.05 | |
| Quality | 42.2 | -0.31 | |
| Composite | 48.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
3.63
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.6 | 18.0 | +53% above |
| P/B Ratio | 4.4 | 3.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
239.17
vs
Market Price
329.25
Upside
-27.4%
| Margin of Safety | -37.7% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 12,154,573,561 |
| Terminal Value PV | 41,566,372,184 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 53,720,945,745 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,143,741,651 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 13.6% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
40.03%
Full Kelly
20.02%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 61/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
41.72
RSI(14)
3.2974
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
62
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+1.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Industrials) |
| RS New High | No (53d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -1.0% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 41.72 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 3.2974 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 324.87 / 314.95 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.02x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 358.60 |
| Bollinger Upper | 349.46 |
| SMA(200) | 314.95 |
| SMA(50) | 324.87 |
| SMA(20) | 331.95 |
| Current Price | 329.25 |
| Bollinger Lower | 314.44 |
| 52-Week Low | 277.80 |
| ATR(14) | 7.28 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION A
Confidence
75%
Selling Climax
Acc: 3.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.97x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.74x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.58x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.87x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.02x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 333.88 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 329.67 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 331.77 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 330.71 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 330.71 – 331.77 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 320.99 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 317.44 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 314.44 – 349.46 | KC: 321.37 – 342.53
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 28 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 313.43
Anchor: 2026-01-20 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+2.4%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/NSC
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 73.96B |
| P/E (TTM) | 27.60 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 4.42 |
| EPS | 11.93 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 13.6% |
| Profit Margin | 20.7% |
| ROE | 16.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 102.49 |
| Current Ratio | 0.90 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.18 |
Trading Data
329.25
Open
329.25
Day High
329.25
Day Low
2.63M
Volume (2.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)