NVR, Inc.
NVR · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
63
/ 100
Technical
40
Trend & RS
38
Momentum
68
Fundamental
89
Macro
24
Liquidity
64
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 40.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 38.5 | 10% |
| Momentum | 68.3 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 88.9 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 64.3 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 6414.18 |
| Stop Loss | 5955.08 (7.2%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 6873.28 (+7.2%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 7332.38 (+14.3%) |
| ATR(14) | 229.55 (3.6%) |
| Risk per Share | 459.10 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 63.2 | +0.53 | |
| Momentum | 62.1 | +0.49 | |
| Quality | 72.9 | +0.92 | |
| Composite | 66.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
16.28
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.7 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 4.9 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
4465.84
vs
Market Price
6414.18
Upside
-30.4%
| Margin of Safety | -43.6% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 3,151,143,105 |
| Terminal Value PV | 8,664,518,880 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 11,815,661,985 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 765,712,214 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
41.58%
Full Kelly
20.79%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 63/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.8%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary SELL
2
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
60.1
RSI(14)
42.9895
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
21
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+5.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | -0.8% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 60.1 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 42.9895 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 6105.96 / 6512.25 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | UPPER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.42x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 8200.00 |
| Bollinger Upper | 6360.9 |
| SMA(200) | 6512.25 |
| SMA(50) | 6105.96 |
| SMA(20) | 5961.26 |
| Current Price | 6414.18 |
| Bollinger Lower | 5561.62 |
| 52-Week Low | 5501.01 |
| ATR(14) | 229.55 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.84x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.77x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.2x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.42x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 6110.58 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 6052.18 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 6081.38 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 6052.18 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 6052.18 – 6081.38 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 6414.18 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 6126.38 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH
BB: 5561.62 – 6360.9 | KC: 5608.45 – 6314.07
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 9 | |
| Regular Bullish | MACD | 9 | |
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 11 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 6217.32
Anchor: 2026-05-15 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+3.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/NVR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 16.97B |
| P/E (TTM) | 17.73 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 4.94 |
| EPS | 361.76 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -8.2% |
| Profit Margin | 11.1% |
| ROE | 28.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 32.17 |
| Current Ratio | 5.39 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.94 |
Trading Data
6414.18
Open
6414.18
Day High
6414.18
Day Low
71.0K
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)