NVR, Inc.

NVR · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

6298.85 USD

0.00 (-1.18%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 23

Momentum 45

Fundamental (0%) 67

Macro 64

Liquidity 46

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	40%
Trend & RS	23.1	20%
Momentum	45.4	20%
Fundamental	66.7	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	46.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	6298.85
Stop Loss	6000.21 (4.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	6597.49 (+4.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	6896.13 (+9.5%)

ATR(14)	149.32 (2.4%)
Risk per Share	298.64
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	63.8	+0.55
Momentum	45.4	-0.18
Quality	75.6	+1.02
Composite	61.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	16.4	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	5.0	2.5	Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

4751.00

Market Price

6298.85

Upside

-24.6%

Margin of Safety	-32.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	3,393,365,921
Terminal Value PV	9,330,545,176
Total Enterprise Value	12,723,911,097

Assumptions

Base FCF	824,571,162
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

11.85%

Full Kelly

5.93%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 26/100. Estimated win rate 48%, avg win 6.5%, avg loss 4.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

47.2

RSI(14)

-10.3782

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-2.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-2.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	47.2	NEUTRAL
Macd	-10.3782	BEARISH
Ma Cross	6416.59 / 6808.26	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.92x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	8563.79
Bollinger Upper	6453.49
SMA(200)	6808.26
SMA(50)	6416.59
SMA(20)	6343.78
Current Price	6298.85
Bollinger Lower	6234.08
52-Week Low	5501.01
ATR(14)	149.32

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.27x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.44x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.14x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.19x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	6355.00	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	6319.03	Base line
Senkou A	6337.02	Leading span A
Senkou B	6437.86	Leading span B
Cloud	6337.02 – 6437.86	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	6298.85	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	6147.05	Bullish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL