Oracle Corporation

ORCL · Technology · · USD

189.76 USD

+0.00 (1.57%)

● Updated 2026-05-14 12:47 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 59

Momentum 55

Fundamental (0%) 56

Macro 72

Liquidity 53

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	59.0	20%
Momentum	55.2	20%
Fundamental	55.6	0%
Macro	71.8	15%
Liquidity	53.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	189.76
Stop Loss	172.28 (9.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	207.24 (+9.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	224.72 (+18.4%)

ATR(14)	8.74 (4.6%)
Risk per Share	17.48
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	17.8	-1.29
Momentum	55.2	+0.21
Quality	64.9	+0.60
Composite	46.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	34.0	28.0	+22% above
P/B Ratio	16.3	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.1%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

153.58

Market Price

189.76

Upside

-19.1%

Margin of Safety	-23.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	90,436,467,086
Terminal Value PV	351,277,971,018
Total Enterprise Value	441,714,438,104

Assumptions

Base FCF	12,838,669,094
Growth Rate (5yr)	21.7%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

36.96%

Full Kelly

18.48%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 56/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.4%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

61.92

RSI(14)

8.7924

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+13.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (4d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-10.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	61.92	NEUTRAL
Macd	8.7924	BULLISH
Ma Cross	162.08 / 209.02	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.55x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	345.72
Bollinger Upper	201.29
SMA(200)	209.02
SMA(50)	162.08
SMA(20)	180.29
Current Price	189.76
Bollinger Lower	159.29
52-Week Low	134.57
ATR(14)	8.74

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-07	Normal	1.11x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	No Supply	0.59x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-05-12	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-13	Normal	0.55x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	183.15	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	167.36	Base line
Senkou A	175.25	Leading span A
Senkou B	167.36	Leading span B
Cloud	167.36 – 175.25	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	189.76	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	143.16	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH