Occidental Petroleum Corporation

OXY · Energy · · USD

55.14 USD

+0.00 (3.98%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 10:50 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 72

Momentum 82

Fundamental 57

Macro 65

Liquidity 48

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	71.9	30%
Momentum	81.6	15%
Fundamental	57.3	10%
Macro	65.3	20%
Liquidity	48.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	55.14
Stop Loss	50.90 (7.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	59.38 (+7.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	63.62 (+15.4%)

ATR(14)	2.12 (3.8%)
Risk per Share	4.24
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	56.1	+0.25
Momentum	81.6	+1.27
Quality	37.7	-0.49
Composite	58.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 2.95 — Grey Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	74.5	10.0	+645% above
P/B Ratio	1.8	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.9%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

9.14

Market Price

55.14

Upside

-83.4%

Margin of Safety	-503.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	2,423,192,218
Terminal Value PV	6,662,913,749
Total Enterprise Value	9,086,105,967

Assumptions

Base FCF	588,823,743
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

42.66%

Full Kelly

21.33%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 65/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 8.9%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

44.0

RSI(14)

-0.6949

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+11.9% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	No (29d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+5.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	44.0	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.6949	BEARISH
Ma Cross	58.17 / 47.19	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.04x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	67.45
Bollinger Upper	61.51
SMA(200)	47.19
SMA(50)	58.17
SMA(20)	56.87
Current Price	55.14
Bollinger Lower	52.23
52-Week Low	38.80
ATR(14)	2.12

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06	Normal	1.57x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.38x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.99x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	1.04x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	56.89	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	58.12	Base line
Senkou A	57.51	Leading span A
Senkou B	58.51	Leading span B
Cloud	57.51 – 58.51	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	55.14	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	62.96	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH