Paychex, Inc.

PAYX · Technology · · USD

121.71 USD

0.00 (-2.69%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 86

Momentum 84

Fundamental 72

Macro 64

Liquidity 43

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	85.9	10%
Momentum	84.1	5%
Fundamental	72.2	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	43.1	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	121.71
Stop Loss	115.61 (5.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	127.81 (+5.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	133.91 (+10.0%)

ATR(14)	3.05 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	6.10
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	19.7	-1.21
Momentum	84.1	+1.36
Quality	45.9	-0.16
Composite	49.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 6.43 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	24.9	28.0	-11% below
P/B Ratio	11.6	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	3.9%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

93.78

Market Price

121.71

Upside

-23.0%

Margin of Safety	-29.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	7,663,141,088
Terminal Value PV	25,719,685,462
Total Enterprise Value	33,382,826,550

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,392,595,610
Growth Rate (5yr)	12.5%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

44.22%

Full Kelly

22.11%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 68/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.0%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

50.56

RSI(14)

2.4816

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+17.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+28.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	50.56	NEUTRAL
Macd	2.4816	BEARISH
Ma Cross	115.9 / 102.12	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.85x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	136.05
Bollinger Upper	128.67
SMA(200)	102.12
SMA(50)	115.9
SMA(20)	123.59
Current Price	121.71
Bollinger Lower	118.51
52-Week Low	85.45
ATR(14)	3.05

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.14x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.5x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.36x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	124.81	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	120.89	Base line
Senkou A	122.85	Leading span A
Senkou B	110.02	Leading span B
Cloud	110.02 – 122.85	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	121.71	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	116.84	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL