Paychex, Inc.
PAYX · Technology · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
59
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
80
Momentum
74
Fundamental
56
Macro
24
Liquidity
60
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 79.5 | 10% |
| Momentum | 73.9 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 59.5 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 119.50 |
| Stop Loss | 112.74 (5.7%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 126.26 (+5.7%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 133.02 (+11.3%) |
| ATR(14) | 3.38 (2.8%) |
| Risk per Share | 6.76 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 29.2 | -0.83 | |
| Momentum | 73.9 | +0.96 | |
| Quality | 65.6 | +0.63 | |
| Composite | 56.3 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.7 | 28.0 | -15% below |
| P/B Ratio | 11.5 | 6.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 4.0% | 0.8% | Above avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
73.54
vs
Market Price
119.50
Upside
-38.5%
| Margin of Safety | -62.5% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 6,586,983,466 |
| Terminal Value PV | 19,593,161,956 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 26,180,145,422 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,435,313,299 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 5.9% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
38.98%
Full Kelly
19.49%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 59/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
65.82
RSI(14)
2.3186
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
73
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+5.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 47d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | -5.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 65.82 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.3186 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 111.26 / 101.49 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.31x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 127.98 |
| Bollinger Upper | 121.29 |
| SMA(200) | 101.49 |
| SMA(50) | 111.26 |
| SMA(20) | 111.5 |
| Current Price | 119.50 |
| Bollinger Lower | 101.72 |
| 52-Week Low | 85.45 |
| ATR(14) | 3.38 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.2x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.84x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.03x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.09x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.31x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 114.70 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 110.11 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 112.41 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 111.85 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 111.85 – 112.41 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 119.50 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 99.82 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 101.72 – 121.29 | KC: 106.61 – 116.4
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 103.90
Anchor: 2026-04-10 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+15.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/PAYX
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 42.54B |
| P/E (TTM) | 23.71 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 11.48 |
| EPS | 5.04 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 5.9% |
| Profit Margin | 27.4% |
| ROE | 47.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 124.70 |
| Current Ratio | 1.28 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.80 |
Trading Data
119.50
Open
119.50
Day High
119.50
Day Low
3.82M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)