PDD Holdings Inc.

PDD · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

82.21 USD

+0.00 (0.71%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 24

Momentum 32

Fundamental (0%) 89

Macro 64

Liquidity 49

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	40%
Trend & RS	24.0	20%
Momentum	31.7	20%
Fundamental	88.9	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	48.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	82.21
Stop Loss	77.77 (5.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	86.65 (+5.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	91.09 (+10.8%)

ATR(14)	2.22 (2.7%)
Risk per Share	4.44
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	89.2	+1.57
Momentum	31.7	-0.73
Quality	62.3	+0.49
Composite	61.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 16.86 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	8.9	18.0	-51% below
P/B Ratio	1.7	2.5	Below

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

148.37

Market Price

82.21

Upside

+80.5%

Margin of Safety	+44.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	51,486,462,059
Terminal Value PV	159,698,961,491
Total Enterprise Value	211,185,423,550

Assumptions

Base FCF	10,555,908,162
Growth Rate (5yr)	8.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.19%

Recommended Size

9.32%

Full Kelly

4.66%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 23/100. Estimated win rate 47%, avg win 6.4%, avg loss 4.5%. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

38.98

RSI(14)

-1.2076

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-8.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-7.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	38.98	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.2076	BEARISH
Ma Cross	85.61 / 98.05	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.69x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	139.41
Bollinger Upper	92.67
SMA(200)	98.05
SMA(50)	85.61
SMA(20)	86.45
Current Price	82.21
Bollinger Lower	80.23
52-Week Low	71.94
ATR(14)	2.22

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

75%

Selling Climax

Acc: 3.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.87x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.75x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.69x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	84.79	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	87.23	Base line
Senkou A	86.01	Leading span A
Senkou B	82.56	Leading span B
Cloud	82.56 – 86.01	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	82.21	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	88.56	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	BEARISH