PDD Holdings Inc.
PDD · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
60
/ 100
Technical
40
Trend & RS
43
Momentum
48
Fundamental
78
Macro
22
Liquidity
72
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 40.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 43.3 | 10% |
| Momentum | 47.8 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 40% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 71.8 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 83.95 |
| Stop Loss | 79.15 (5.7%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 88.75 (+5.7%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 93.55 (+11.4%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.40 (2.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 4.80 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 88.4 | +1.54 | |
| Momentum | 43.4 | -0.26 | |
| Quality | 62.3 | +0.49 | |
| Composite | 64.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.4 | 18.0 | -48% below |
| P/B Ratio | 1.8 | 2.5 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
142.29
vs
Market Price
83.95
Upside
+69.5%
| Margin of Safety | +41.0% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 49,375,905,376 |
| Terminal Value PV | 153,152,508,360 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 202,528,413,736 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 10,123,195,530 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 8.1% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
39.18%
Full Kelly
19.59%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 60/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary SELL
2
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
61.47
RSI(14)
0.3898
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
33
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-3.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (62d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -9.9% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 61.47 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.3898 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 79.86 / 90.58 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | UPPER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.81x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 139.12 |
| Bollinger Upper | 83.92 |
| SMA(200) | 90.58 |
| SMA(50) | 79.86 |
| SMA(20) | 80.44 |
| Current Price | 83.95 |
| Bollinger Lower | 76.97 |
| 52-Week Low | 71.94 |
| ATR(14) | 2.4 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.96x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.33x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.87x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.15x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.81x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 81.05 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 80.07 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 80.56 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 81.52 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 80.56 – 81.52 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 83.95 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 76.50 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE ON
3 bars
Momentum:
BULLISH
BB: 76.97 – 83.92 | KC: 76.83 – 84.06
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 25 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 82.72
Anchor: 2026-06-26 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+1.5%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/PDD
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 119.49B |
| P/E (TTM) | 9.44 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.76 |
| EPS | 8.89 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 8.1% |
| Profit Margin | 20.4% |
| ROE | 22.7% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.08 |
| Current Ratio | 2.62 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | -0.08 |
Trading Data
83.95
Open
83.95
Day High
83.95
Day Low
10.24M
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)