The Progressive Corporation
PGR · Financial Services · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
72
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
87
Momentum
76
Fundamental
56
Macro
23
Liquidity
74
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 87.1 | 30% |
| Momentum | 76.3 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.3 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 74.0 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 233.18 |
| Stop Loss | 222.52 (4.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 243.84 (+4.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 254.50 (+9.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.33 (2.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 10.66 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 74.5 | +0.98 | |
| Momentum | 69.4 | +0.78 | |
| Quality | 43.9 | -0.24 | |
| Composite | 62.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.8 | 18.0 | -35% below |
| P/B Ratio | 3.9 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 17.0% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued
Intrinsic Value
255.89
vs
Market Price
233.18
Upside
+9.7%
| Margin of Safety | +8.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 38,939,829,780 |
| Terminal Value PV | 109,311,223,415 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 148,251,053,195 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 9,200,270,840 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 3.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
46.64%
Full Kelly
23.32%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 72/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.3%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
62.04
RSI(14)
4.7038
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
67
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+13.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +2.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 62.04 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 4.7038 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 218.56 / 209.78 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.72x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 241.02 |
| Bollinger Upper | 238.1 |
| SMA(200) | 209.78 |
| SMA(50) | 218.56 |
| SMA(20) | 224.97 |
| Current Price | 233.18 |
| Bollinger Lower | 211.84 |
| 52-Week Low | 189.20 |
| ATR(14) | 5.33 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.72x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.73x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.07x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.18x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.72x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 232.43 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 221.02 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 226.72 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 220.99 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 220.99 – 226.72 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 233.18 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 210.96 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 211.84 – 238.1 | KC: 216.35 – 233.59
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | MACD | 11 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 213.82
Anchor: 2026-05-29 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+9.1%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/PGR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 135.10B |
| P/E (TTM) | 11.75 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.92 |
| EPS | 19.85 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 3.0% |
| Profit Margin | 12.7% |
| ROE | 33.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 24.33 |
| Current Ratio | 0.29 |
| Dividend Yield | 17.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.20 |
Trading Data
233.18
Open
233.18
Day High
233.18
Day Low
4.53M
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)