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The Progressive Corporation

PGR · Financial Services · · USD
196.91 USD
+0.00 (1.50%)
● Updated 2026-05-12 11:49 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

36
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 26
Momentum 43
Fundamental 67
Macro 65
Liquidity 48
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 20%
Trend & RS 25.5 30%
Momentum 43.2 15%
Fundamental 66.7 10%
Macro 65.1 20%
Liquidity 47.8 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 196.91
Stop Loss 188.11 (4.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 205.71 (+4.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 214.51 (+8.9%)
ATR(14) 4.40 (2.2%)
Risk per Share 8.80
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 78.2 +1.13
Momentum 43.2 -0.27
Quality 47.2 -0.11
Composite 56.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 10.0 18.0 -44% below
P/B Ratio 3.6 2.5 Above
Dividend Yield 7.1% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
322.45
vs
Market Price
196.91
Upside
+63.8%
Margin of Safety +38.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)45,551,006,393
Terminal Value PV142,870,075,553
Total Enterprise Value188,421,081,946

Assumptions

Base FCF9,185,769,321
Growth Rate (5yr)8.7%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
21.56%
Full Kelly
10.78%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 36/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.2%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
44.5
RSI(14)
-1.4906
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

26
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-9.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector INLINE (Financial Services)
RS New High No (29d since high)
Sector Outperformance -1.9% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 44.5 NEUTRAL
Macd -1.4906 BEARISH
Ma Cross 202.01 / 212.89 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.9x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High289.96
Bollinger Upper207.47
SMA(200)212.89
SMA(50)202.01
SMA(20)200.54
Current Price196.91
Bollinger Lower193.61
52-Week Low191.75
ATR(14)4.4

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0  |  Dist: 1.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-05-05 Normal 1.08x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06 Normal 1.15x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07 Normal 1.21x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08 Normal 1.24x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11 Normal 0.9x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 197.73 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 200.11 Base line
Senkou A 198.92 Leading span A
Senkou B 203.30 Leading span B
Cloud 198.92 – 203.30 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 196.91 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 196.38 Bullish
Alignment Score 1/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 193.61 – 207.47  |  KC: 193.84 – 207.24

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 206.28 Anchor: 2025-11-03 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -4.5%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/PGR

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap115.06B
P/E (TTM)10.02
Forward P/EN/A
P/B3.59
EPS19.65

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth8.7%
Profit Margin12.9%
ROE37.9%
Debt/Equity26.17
Current Ratio0.30
Dividend Yield7.1%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.29

Trading Data

196.91
Open
196.91
Day High
196.91
Day Low
1.78M
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

BMO Capital Maintains a Hold Rating on The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Insider Monkey · 2026-05-10
My Top 3 Financial Stocks for May 2026
Motley Fool · 2026-05-10
Possible Bearish Signals With Progressive Insiders Disposing Stock
Simply Wall St. · 2026-05-10
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Investing.com · 2026-05-09
How A Top-Performing Analyst-Driven Fund Beats The Market
Investor's Business Daily · 2026-05-08
Progressive Expands UpPayment As Housing Push Meets Valuation Opportunity
Simply Wall St. · 2026-05-06
Here is What to Know Beyond Why The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a Trending Stock
Zacks · 2026-05-06
Berkshire Hathaway Q1 Earnings & Revenues Increase Year Over Year
Zacks · 2026-05-04

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —