The Progressive Corporation
PGR · Financial Services · · USDFahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)
76
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
87
Momentum
64
Fundamental (0%)
83
Macro
24
Liquidity
41
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 87.1 | 20% |
| Momentum | 64.5 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 83.3 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 41.2 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 227.58 |
| Stop Loss | 216.80 (4.7%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 238.36 (+4.7%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 249.14 (+9.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.39 (2.4%) |
| Risk per Share | 10.78 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 75.0 | +1.00 | |
| Momentum | 64.5 | +0.58 | |
| Quality | 43.9 | -0.24 | |
| Composite | 61.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
10.56
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.4 | 18.0 | -36% below |
| P/B Ratio | 3.8 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 17.0% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
255.89
vs
Market Price
227.07
Upside
+12.7%
| Margin of Safety | +11.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 38,939,831,893 |
| Terminal Value PV | 109,311,229,349 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 148,251,061,242 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 9,200,271,339 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 3.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
49.26%
Full Kelly
24.63%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 76/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
54.07
RSI(14)
4.2443
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
67
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+11.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 2d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | +4.7% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 54.07 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 4.2443 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 218.76 / 209.89 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.09x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 241.02 |
| Bollinger Upper | 238.16 |
| SMA(200) | 209.89 |
| SMA(50) | 218.76 |
| SMA(20) | 225.48 |
| Current Price | 227.07 |
| Bollinger Lower | 212.79 |
| 52-Week Low | 189.20 |
| ATR(14) | 5.39 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.74x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.09x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.21x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.76x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 0.09x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 232.43 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 221.02 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 226.72 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 220.99 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 220.99 – 226.72 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 227.58 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 210.31 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 212.79 – 238.16 | KC: 216.63 – 234.33
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | MACD | 12 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 213.83
Anchor: 2026-05-29 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+6.4%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/PGR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 131.56B |
| P/E (TTM) | 11.44 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.81 |
| EPS | 19.85 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 3.0% |
| Profit Margin | 12.7% |
| ROE | 33.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 24.33 |
| Current Ratio | 0.29 |
| Dividend Yield | 17.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.20 |
Trading Data
227.07
Open
227.07
Day High
227.07
Day Low
352.2K
Volume (0.1x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)