Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
RCL · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
61
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
69
Momentum
78
Fundamental
59
Macro
22
Liquidity
57
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 69.4 | 30% |
| Momentum | 78.2 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 58.7 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 57.4 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 322.73 |
| Stop Loss | 297.83 (7.7%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 347.63 (+7.7%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 372.53 (+15.4%) |
| ATR(14) | 12.45 (3.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 24.90 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 49.7 | -0.01 | |
| Momentum | 78.2 | +1.13 | |
| Quality | 55.9 | +0.23 | |
| Composite | 61.3 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
3.09
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.1 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 7.4 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
278.48
vs
Market Price
322.73
Upside
-13.7%
| Margin of Safety | -15.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 17,981,749,060 |
| Terminal Value PV | 56,503,554,241 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 74,485,303,301 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 3,616,206,906 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 8.8% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
39.97%
Full Kelly
19.98%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 61/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
65.29
RSI(14)
13.3608
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
48
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+6.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +0.1% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 65.29 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 13.3608 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 273.84 / 285.05 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.21x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 356.39 |
| Bollinger Upper | 329.57 |
| SMA(200) | 285.05 |
| SMA(50) | 273.84 |
| SMA(20) | 294.0 |
| Current Price | 322.73 |
| Bollinger Lower | 258.42 |
| 52-Week Low | 222.22 |
| ATR(14) | 12.45 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
43%
Sign of Strength
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 1.5 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.91x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.3x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.86x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.21x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.21x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 307.19 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 300.12 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 303.65 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 279.62 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 279.62 – 303.65 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 322.73 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 269.99 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 258.42 – 329.57 | KC: 276.13 – 311.87
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bullish | RSI | 10 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 276.55
Anchor: 2026-09-23 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+16.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/RCL
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 86.32B |
| P/E (TTM) | 19.10 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 7.37 |
| EPS | 16.90 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 8.8% |
| Profit Margin | 23.8% |
| ROE | 41.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 194.49 |
| Current Ratio | 0.22 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.86 |
Trading Data
322.73
Open
322.73
Day High
322.73
Day Low
2.58M
Volume (1.1x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)