Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

RCL · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

265.19 USD

0.00 (-0.14%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 40

Trend & RS 41

Momentum 37

Fundamental 56

Macro 64

Liquidity 47

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	40.0	20%
Trend & RS	41.2	30%
Momentum	36.9	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	47.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	265.19
Stop Loss	248.99 (6.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	281.39 (+6.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	297.59 (+12.2%)

ATR(14)	8.10 (3.0%)
Risk per Share	16.20
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	53.5	+0.14
Momentum	36.9	-0.52
Quality	55.7	+0.23
Composite	48.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	16.4	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	6.9	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	2.3%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

242.46

Market Price

265.19

Upside

-8.6%

Margin of Safety	-9.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	16,174,247,661
Terminal Value PV	48,671,757,326
Total Enterprise Value	64,846,004,987

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,466,178,859
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.5%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

30.04%

Full Kelly

15.02%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 47/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

25.61

RSI(14)

-10.2871

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-10.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-9.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	25.61	OVERSOLD
Macd	-10.2871	BEARISH
Ma Cross	297.3 / 286.19	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.91x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	360.09
Bollinger Upper	321.71
SMA(200)	286.19
SMA(50)	297.3
SMA(20)	289.51
Current Price	265.19
Bollinger Lower	257.32
52-Week Low	232.10
ATR(14)	8.1

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.69x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.23x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.08x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.42x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	279.63	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	298.02	Base line
Senkou A	288.83	Leading span A
Senkou B	298.02	Leading span B
Cloud	288.83 – 298.02	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	265.19	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	318.30	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH