The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
SAM · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)
67
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
73
Momentum
84
Fundamental (0%)
61
Macro
24
Liquidity
36
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 73.0 | 20% |
| Momentum | 84.4 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 61.1 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 36.4 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 217.40 |
| Stop Loss | 200.90 (7.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 233.90 (+7.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 250.40 (+15.2%) |
| ATR(14) | 8.25 (3.8%) |
| Risk per Share | 16.50 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 72.1 | +0.88 | |
| Momentum | 84.4 | +1.38 | |
| Quality | 10.9 | -1.57 | |
| Composite | 55.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
2
/9 —
Weak
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✗
✗
✗
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
48.78
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 3.0 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
43.79%
Full Kelly
21.89%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 67/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.0%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
67.13
RSI(14)
12.3152
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
57
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+25.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | No (2d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +12.4% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 67.13 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 12.3152 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 180.58 / 199.13 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.01x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 264.46 |
| Bollinger Upper | 231.6 |
| SMA(200) | 199.13 |
| SMA(50) | 180.58 |
| SMA(20) | 197.18 |
| Current Price | 224.97 |
| Bollinger Lower | 162.76 |
| 52-Week Low | 158.68 |
| ATR(14) | 8.25 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION A
Confidence
50%
Buying Climax
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 2.0 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.55x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.26x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.14x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 0.86x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.01x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 213.72 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 198.15 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 205.94 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 196.40 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 196.40 – 205.94 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 217.40 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 167.50 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 162.76 – 231.6 | KC: 184.99 – 209.37
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 180.11
Anchor: 2026-06-04 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+20.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/SAM
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 2.28B |
| P/E (TTM) | N/A |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.05 |
| EPS | -6.80 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -3.2% |
| Profit Margin | -3.8% |
| ROE | -8.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 4.01 |
| Current Ratio | 1.13 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.80 |
Trading Data
224.97
Open
224.97
Day High
224.97
Day Low
191.4K
Volume (0.9x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)