Starbucks Corporation

SBUX · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

104.47 USD

0.00 (-1.28%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 73

Momentum 57

Fundamental 61

Macro 64

Liquidity 49

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	73.1	30%
Momentum	57.3	15%
Fundamental	60.8	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	48.7	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	104.47
Stop Loss	99.57 (4.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	109.37 (+4.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	114.27 (+9.4%)

ATR(14)	2.45 (2.4%)
Risk per Share	4.90
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	9.9	-1.60
Momentum	57.3	+0.29
Quality	18.9	-1.24
Composite	28.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 3 /9 — Weak

✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 4.41 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	60.4	18.0	+236% above
P/B Ratio	-15.5	2.5	Inline
Dividend Yield	2.4%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

21.36

Market Price

104.47

Upside

-79.6%

Margin of Safety	-389.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	6,492,971,453
Terminal Value PV	17,853,354,121
Total Enterprise Value	24,346,325,574

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,577,760,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

40.68%

Full Kelly

20.34%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 62/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

45.45

RSI(14)

0.3338

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+5.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (36d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+5.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	45.45	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.3338	BEARISH
Ma Cross	105.03 / 96.64	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.84x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	110.51
Bollinger Upper	109.22
SMA(200)	96.64
SMA(50)	105.03
SMA(20)	106.49
Current Price	104.47
Bollinger Lower	103.76
52-Week Low	77.99
ATR(14)	2.45

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.32x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	106.55	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	105.55	Base line
Senkou A	106.05	Leading span A
Senkou B	104.70	Leading span B
Cloud	104.70 – 106.05	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	104.47	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	104.65	Bearish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL