Starbucks Corporation

SBUX · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

105.95 USD

0.00 (-0.59%)

● Updated 2026-05-14 12:48 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 76

Momentum 78

Fundamental 44

Macro 72

Liquidity 60

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	10%
Trend & RS	76.3	10%
Momentum	77.7	5%
Fundamental	44.4	40%
Macro	71.8	15%
Liquidity	59.5	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	105.95
Stop Loss	100.71 (5.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	111.19 (+5.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	116.43 (+9.9%)

ATR(14)	2.62 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	5.24
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	0.0	-2.00
Momentum	77.7	+1.11
Quality	19.9	-1.20
Composite	32.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	80.9	18.0	+349% above
P/B Ratio	-14.3	2.5	Inline
Dividend Yield	2.3%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

21.59

Market Price

105.95

Upside

-79.6%

Margin of Safety	-390.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	5,939,234,544
Terminal Value PV	18,662,692,934
Total Enterprise Value	24,601,927,478

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,194,405,555
Growth Rate (5yr)	8.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

40.68%

Full Kelly

20.34%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 62/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

63.6

RSI(14)

2.5716

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+0.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (43d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+27.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	63.6	NEUTRAL
Macd	2.5716	BULLISH
Ma Cross	98.2 / 89.9	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.12x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	108.05
Bollinger Upper	109.58
SMA(200)	89.9
SMA(50)	98.2
SMA(20)	102.43
Current Price	105.95
Bollinger Lower	95.28
52-Week Low	77.99
ATR(14)	2.62

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

50%

Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-07	Normal	1.19x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.59x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	0.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-13	Normal	1.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	105.50	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	101.75	Base line
Senkou A	103.62	Leading span A
Senkou B	96.82	Leading span B
Cloud	96.82 – 103.62	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	105.95	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	97.21	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH