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Starbucks Corporation

SBUX · Consumer Cyclical · · USD
104.47 USD
0.00 (-1.28%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 19:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

44
/ 100
Technical 50
Trend & RS 73
Momentum 57
Fundamental 22
Macro 64
Liquidity 49
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 50.0 10%
Trend & RS 73.1 10%
Momentum 57.3 5%
Fundamental 22.2 40%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 48.7 20%

Trade Setup

Entry 104.47
Stop Loss 99.57 (4.7%)
Target 1 (1:1) 109.37 (+4.7%)
Target 2 (2:1) 114.27 (+9.4%)
ATR(14) 2.45 (2.4%)
Risk per Share 4.90
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 0.0 -2.00
Momentum 57.3 +0.29
Quality 18.9 -1.24
Composite 25.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 2 /9 — Weak
✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✗
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 60.4 18.0 +236% above
P/B Ratio -15.5 2.5 Inline
Dividend Yield 2.4% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
21.36
vs
Market Price
104.47
Upside
-79.6%
Margin of Safety -389.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)6,492,971,665
Terminal Value PV17,853,354,705
Total Enterprise Value24,346,326,370

Assumptions

Base FCF1,577,760,052
Growth Rate (5yr)2.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
27.57%
Full Kelly
13.78%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 44/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
45.45
RSI(14)
0.3338
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

82
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY → FLAT (+5.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High No (36d since high)
Sector Outperformance +5.7% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 45.45 NEUTRAL
Macd 0.3338 BEARISH
Ma Cross 105.03 / 96.64 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.84x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High110.51
Bollinger Upper109.22
SMA(200)96.64
SMA(50)105.03
SMA(20)106.49
Current Price104.47
Bollinger Lower103.76
52-Week Low77.99
ATR(14)2.45

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0  |  Dist: 1.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.32x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.85x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.95x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.77x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.84x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 106.55 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 105.55 Base line
Senkou A 106.05 Leading span A
Senkou B 104.70 Leading span B
Cloud 104.70 – 106.05 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 104.47 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 104.65 Bearish
Alignment Score 2/4 NEUTRAL

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE ON 35 bars Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 103.76 – 109.22  |  KC: 102.96 – 110.03

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish RSI 8
Regular Bearish MACD 8
Regular Bearish RSI 23

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 95.02 Anchor: 2025-11-04 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +9.9%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

EXHAUSTION Trend exhaustion (3 doji candles) Full data via /api/advanced/SBUX

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap119.10B
P/E (TTM)60.39
Forward P/EN/A
P/B-15.52
EPS1.73

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth-1.4%
Profit Margin5.2%
ROEN/A
Debt/EquityN/A
Current Ratio0.76
Dividend Yield2.4%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.96

Trading Data

104.47
Open
104.47
Day High
104.47
Day Low
4.60M
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

CEO Brian Niccol Just Announced Incredible News for Starbucks Investors
Motley Fool · 2026-09-05
Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Looks Overvalued On Current Assumptions
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-04
Starbucks (SBUX) Brings A New Wellness Bar To Stores Nationwide
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-04
McDonald's Trades at 19.15X P/E: Is This a Discounted Opportunity?
Zacks · 2026-09-04
The Sisterhood of the Traveling Brand Sponsorships
The Wall Street Journal · 2026-09-04
Starbucks Refreshed Its Menu. Chai Fans Are Losing Their Minds.
The Wall Street Journal · 2026-09-04
Dutch Bros Stock Is Down Sharply, But History Has A Warning For Dip Buyers
Trefis · 2026-09-03
Is Starbucks Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?
Barchart · 2026-09-03

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —