Starbucks Corporation
SBUX · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)
62
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
69
Momentum
56
Fundamental (0%)
61
Macro
24
Liquidity
74
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 69.1 | 20% |
| Momentum | 56.2 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 61.3 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 73.6 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 106.16 |
| Stop Loss | 100.48 (5.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 111.84 (+5.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 117.52 (+10.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.84 (2.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 5.68 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 12.3 | -1.51 | |
| Momentum | 56.2 | +0.25 | |
| Quality | 20.4 | -1.19 | |
| Composite | 29.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
3
/9 —
Weak
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
4.46
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.0 | 18.0 | +167% above |
| P/B Ratio | -15.8 | 2.5 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
27.28
vs
Market Price
106.16
Upside
-74.3%
| Margin of Safety | -289.1% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 8,295,217,130 |
| Terminal Value PV | 22,808,886,506 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 31,104,103,636 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,015,696,800 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
40.94%
Full Kelly
20.47%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 62/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
62.36
RSI(14)
2.5666
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
72
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+6.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | -0.0% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 62.36 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.5666 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 99.18 / 99.42 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.45x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 111.50 |
| Bollinger Upper | 110.75 |
| SMA(200) | 99.42 |
| SMA(50) | 99.18 |
| SMA(20) | 100.24 |
| Current Price | 106.16 |
| Bollinger Lower | 89.74 |
| 52-Week Low | 81.76 |
| ATR(14) | 2.84 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.52x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.72x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.09x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.45x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 106.27 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 99.42 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 102.85 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 99.42 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 99.42 – 102.85 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 106.16 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 94.88 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 89.74 – 110.75 | KC: 96.24 – 104.25
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 95.65
Anchor: 2025-11-05 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+11.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/SBUX
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 121.03B |
| P/E (TTM) | 48.04 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | -15.78 |
| EPS | 2.21 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -4.5% |
| Profit Margin | 6.7% |
| ROE | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | N/A |
| Current Ratio | 0.76 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.01 |
Trading Data
106.16
Open
106.16
Day High
106.16
Day Low
13.45M
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)