Shopify Inc.
SHOP · Technology · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
59
/ 100
Technical
60
Trend & RS
71
Momentum
58
Fundamental
89
Macro
22
Liquidity
67
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 60.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 70.7 | 30% |
| Momentum | 58.0 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 88.9 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 66.6 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 143.75 |
| Stop Loss | 125.67 (12.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 161.83 (+12.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 179.91 (+25.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 9.04 (6.3%) |
| Risk per Share | 18.08 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0.0 | -2.00 | |
| Momentum | 58.0 | +0.32 | |
| Quality | 67.9 | +0.72 | |
| Composite | 41.9 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
592.45
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 88.2 | 28.0 | +215% above |
| P/B Ratio | 14.5 | 6.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.8% | Below avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
50.80
vs
Market Price
143.75
Upside
-64.7%
| Margin of Safety | -182.9% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 12,107,198,337 |
| Terminal Value PV | 49,287,506,950 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 61,394,705,287 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,575,827,834 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
38.51%
Full Kelly
19.26%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 59/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
3
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
38.16
RSI(14)
-1.4132
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
76
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-0.2% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (15d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -10.9% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 38.16 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -1.4132 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 152.62 / 129.88 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.28x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 180.88 |
| Bollinger Upper | 187.12 |
| SMA(200) | 129.88 |
| SMA(50) | 152.62 |
| SMA(20) | 166.26 |
| Current Price | 143.75 |
| Bollinger Lower | 145.41 |
| 52-Week Low | 94.00 |
| ATR(14) | 9.04 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.1x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.46x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 2.59x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.37x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.28x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 153.53 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 158.26 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 155.90 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 152.45 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 152.45 – 155.90 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 143.75 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 149.09 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 145.41 – 187.12 | KC: 152.6 – 179.93
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 134.20
Anchor: 2026-05-14 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+7.1%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/SHOP
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 184.94B |
| P/E (TTM) | 88.19 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 14.50 |
| EPS | 1.63 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 31.6% |
| Profit Margin | 15.0% |
| ROE | 16.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.48 |
| Current Ratio | 4.86 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 2.66 |
Trading Data
143.75
Open
143.75
Day High
143.75
Day Low
12.12M
Volume (1.4x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)