Shopify Inc.

SHOP · Technology · · USD

102.54 USD

0.00 (-7.21%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 11:51 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 20

Trend & RS 23

Momentum 24

Fundamental 78

Macro 65

Liquidity 74

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	20.0	20%
Trend & RS	22.7	30%
Momentum	23.7	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	65.1	20%
Liquidity	74.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	102.54
Stop Loss	89.24 (13.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	115.84 (+13.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	129.14 (+25.9%)

ATR(14)	6.65 (6.5%)
Risk per Share	13.30
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	0.0	-2.00
Momentum	21.6	-1.14
Quality	61.4	+0.46
Composite	27.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	100.5	28.0	+259% above
P/B Ratio	10.7	6.0	Above

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

31.79

Market Price

102.54

Upside

-69.0%

Margin of Safety	-222.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	8,135,498,702
Terminal Value PV	33,119,012,145
Total Enterprise Value	41,254,510,847

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,058,886,205
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

23.85%

Full Kelly

11.92%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 39/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.3%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

35.34

RSI(14)

-3.6688

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-20.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (46d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-54.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	35.34	NEUTRAL
Macd	-3.6688	BEARISH
Ma Cross	121.44 / 141.57	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		LOWER BAND
Volume	1.62x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	182.19
Bollinger Upper	140.56
SMA(200)	141.57
SMA(50)	121.44
SMA(20)	121.65
Current Price	102.54
Bollinger Lower	102.75
52-Week Low	100.31
ATR(14)	6.65

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

57%

Sign of Weakness Selling Climax

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 1.5

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Stopping Volume	3.47x	High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume)
2026-05-06	Normal	2.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.98x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	1.27x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	1.62x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	115.88	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	119.84	Base line
Senkou A	117.86	Leading span A
Senkou B	119.84	Leading span B
Cloud	117.86 – 119.84	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	102.54	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	118.80	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH