Shopify Inc.

SHOP · Technology · · USD

145.09 USD

0.00 (-0.54%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:37 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 81

Momentum 74

Fundamental (0%) 89

Macro 64

Liquidity 54

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	40%
Trend & RS	81.4	20%
Momentum	73.8	20%
Fundamental	88.9	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	53.6	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	145.09
Stop Loss	133.51 (8.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	156.67 (+8.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	168.25 (+16.0%)

ATR(14)	5.79 (4.0%)
Risk per Share	11.58
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	0.0	-2.00
Momentum	73.8	+0.95
Quality	66.7	+0.67
Composite	46.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 636.77 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	98.0	28.0	+250% above
P/B Ratio	14.8	6.0	Above

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

46.13

Market Price

145.09

Upside

-68.2%

Margin of Safety	-214.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	11,094,232,187
Terminal Value PV	45,163,796,840
Total Enterprise Value	56,258,029,027

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,443,983,934
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

47.76%

Full Kelly

23.88%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 73/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.4%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

52.01

RSI(14)

3.0333

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+27.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (16d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+38.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	52.01	NEUTRAL
Macd	3.0333	BEARISH
Ma Cross	134.15 / 131.3	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.03x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	182.19
Bollinger Upper	158.87
SMA(200)	131.3
SMA(50)	134.15
SMA(20)	149.53
Current Price	145.09
Bollinger Lower	140.18
52-Week Low	94.00
ATR(14)	5.79

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.04x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.36x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.88x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.03x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	147.69	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	137.07	Base line
Senkou A	142.38	Leading span A
Senkou B	132.80	Leading span B
Cloud	132.80 – 142.38	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	145.09	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	117.15	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH