The J. M. Smucker Company

SJM · Consumer Defensive · · USD

99.22 USD

0.00 (-0.03%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 10:48 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 40

Momentum 43

Fundamental 11

Macro 65

Liquidity 40

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	39.9	30%
Momentum	43.2	15%
Fundamental	11.1	10%
Macro	65.3	20%
Liquidity	40.2	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	99.22
Stop Loss	94.56 (4.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	103.88 (+4.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	108.54 (+9.4%)

ATR(14)	2.33 (2.4%)
Risk per Share	4.66
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	84.0	+1.36
Momentum	43.2	-0.27
Quality	3.3	-1.87
Composite	43.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 1 /9 — Weak

✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	N/A	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	2.0	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	4.4%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

28.43%

Full Kelly

14.22%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 45/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.7%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

58.07

RSI(14)

0.3244

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-13.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (50d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+1.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	58.07	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.3244	BULLISH
Ma Cross	99.15 / 102.93	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.26x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	119.39
Bollinger Upper	100.18
SMA(200)	102.93
SMA(50)	99.15
SMA(20)	96.39
Current Price	99.22
Bollinger Lower	92.6
52-Week Low	88.25
ATR(14)	2.33

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

50%

Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Normal	0.62x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06	Normal	0.81x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.32x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	1.26x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	97.69	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	94.30	Base line
Senkou A	96.00	Leading span A
Senkou B	103.82	Leading span B
Cloud	96.00 – 103.82	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	99.22	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	95.22	Bullish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL