The J. M. Smucker Company
SJM · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score STRONG BUY Short-term (Swing)
82
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
92
Momentum
89
Fundamental (0%)
44
Macro
22
Liquidity
55
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 91.9 | 20% |
| Momentum | 89.3 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 44.4 | 0% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 55.3 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 133.25 |
| Stop Loss | 126.23 (5.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 140.27 (+5.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 147.29 (+10.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 3.51 (2.6%) |
| Risk per Share | 7.02 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 39.6 | -0.42 | |
| Momentum | 81.2 | +1.25 | |
| Quality | 21.1 | -1.15 | |
| Composite | 47.3 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 62.3 | 18.0 | +246% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.5 | 2.5 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
30.06
vs
Market Price
133.25
Upside
-77.4%
| Margin of Safety | -343.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 818,529,917 |
| Terminal Value PV | 2,392,179,579 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 3,210,709,496 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 182,881,285 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 5.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
52.83%
Full Kelly
26.41%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 82/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 9.9%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
62.5
RSI(14)
2.4312
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
79
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+16.9% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +2.8% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 62.5 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.4312 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 124.62 / 110.54 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.47x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 136.22 |
| Bollinger Upper | 135.53 |
| SMA(200) | 110.54 |
| SMA(50) | 124.62 |
| SMA(20) | 127.35 |
| Current Price | 133.25 |
| Bollinger Lower | 119.17 |
| 52-Week Low | 88.25 |
| ATR(14) | 3.51 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
56%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 2.5 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.43x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.09x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.67x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.22x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.47x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 130.45 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 125.66 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 128.06 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 125.66 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 125.66 – 128.06 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 133.25 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 115.95 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 119.17 – 135.53 | KC: 122.23 – 132.46
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 112.06
Anchor: 2026-04-13 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+18.9%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/SJM
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 14.23B |
| P/E (TTM) | 62.27 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.48 |
| EPS | 2.14 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 5.0% |
| Profit Margin | 2.5% |
| ROE | 3.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 120.68 |
| Current Ratio | 0.87 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.25 |
Trading Data
133.25
Open
133.25
Day High
133.25
Day Low
1.69M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)