The J. M. Smucker Company

SJM · Consumer Defensive · · USD

126.08 USD

0.00 (-1.89%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:34 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 96

Momentum 75

Fundamental 48

Macro 64

Liquidity 41

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	96.0	30%
Momentum	75.4	15%
Fundamental	48.5	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	41.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	126.08
Stop Loss	119.10 (5.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	133.06 (+5.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	140.04 (+11.1%)

ATR(14)	3.49 (2.8%)
Risk per Share	6.98
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	51.6	+0.06
Momentum	75.4	+1.01
Quality	21.1	-1.15
Composite	49.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 2.07 — Grey Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	58.9	18.0	+227% above
P/B Ratio	2.4	2.5	Inline
Dividend Yield	3.5%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

30.06

Market Price

126.08

Upside

-76.2%

Margin of Safety	-319.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	818,529,935
Terminal Value PV	2,392,179,640
Total Enterprise Value	3,210,709,575

Assumptions

Base FCF	182,881,289
Growth Rate (5yr)	5.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

48.63%

Full Kelly

24.31%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 75/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.5%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

54.57

RSI(14)

3.4715

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+18.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (3d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+20.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	54.57	NEUTRAL
Macd	3.4715	BEARISH
Ma Cross	118.75 / 104.96	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.84x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	135.89
Bollinger Upper	135.99
SMA(200)	104.96
SMA(50)	118.75
SMA(20)	124.67
Current Price	126.08
Bollinger Lower	113.35
52-Week Low	88.25
ATR(14)	3.49

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	0.94x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.3x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.87x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	129.83	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	125.23	Base line
Senkou A	127.53	Leading span A
Senkou B	121.17	Leading span B
Cloud	121.17 – 127.53	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	126.08	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	118.15	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL