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Super Micro Computer, Inc.

SMCI · Technology · · USD
28.24 USD
+0.00 (0.25%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 15:40 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

39
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 24
Momentum 48
Fundamental 67
Macro 78
Liquidity 40
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 20%
Trend & RS 23.6 30%
Momentum 48.1 15%
Fundamental 66.7 10%
Macro 78.4 20%
Liquidity 40.5 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 28.24
Stop Loss 22.96 (18.7%)
Target 1 (1:1) 33.52 (+18.7%)
Target 2 (2:1) 38.80 (+37.4%)
ATR(14) 2.64 (9.3%)
Risk per Share 5.28
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 79.9 +1.19
Momentum 48.1 -0.08
Quality 48.2 -0.07
Composite 58.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 14.9 28.0 -47% below
P/B Ratio 2.2 6.0 Below

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
59.22
vs
Market Price
28.24
Upside
+109.7%
Margin of Safety +52.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)7,554,356,763
Terminal Value PV30,753,226,400
Total Enterprise Value38,307,583,163

Assumptions

Base FCF983,246,935
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
23.68%
Full Kelly
11.84%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 39/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.3%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
43.1
RSI(14)
-2.0895
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

9
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY → FLAT (+9.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High No (25d since high)
Sector Outperformance -27.1% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 43.1 NEUTRAL
Macd -2.0895 BEARISH
Ma Cross 33.4 / 34.66 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.45x LOW

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High62.36
Bollinger Upper34.52
SMA(200)34.66
SMA(50)33.4
SMA(20)29.8
Current Price28.24
Bollinger Lower25.07
52-Week Low19.48
ATR(14)2.64

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence
85%
Selling Climax Spring (potential)
Acc: 5.5  |  Dist: 1.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-02 Normal 0.58x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06 Normal 0.42x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07 Normal 0.53x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 0.5x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 No Demand 0.45x Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 28.56 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 38.41 Base line
Senkou A 33.48 Leading span A
Senkou B 38.41 Leading span B
Cloud 33.48 – 38.41 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 28.24 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 50.17 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 25.07 – 34.52  |  KC: 25.54 – 34.05

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 31.26 Anchor: 2026-03-23 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -9.7%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/SMCI

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap18.27B
P/E (TTM)14.86
Forward P/EN/A
P/B2.24
EPS1.90

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth1.2%
Profit Margin3.7%
ROE17.9%
Debt/Equity120.80
Current Ratio2.65
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.94

Trading Data

28.24
Open
28.24
Day High
28.24
Day Low
33.08M
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

2 Mid-Cap Stocks with Impressive Fundamentals and 1 We Find Risky
StockStory · 2026-07-10
SMCI Stock Likely to Reverse from Oversold Levels as DCBBS Gains Growth Traction
Barchart · 2026-07-09
Super Micro Stock Just Collapsed 29% in a Month: Is It Time to Switch to Dell or Hewlett Packard Enterprise?
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-07-09
Is Super Micro Stock's AI Growth Story Worth the Cash-Burning Risk?
Trefis · 2026-07-09
Why Super Micro Computer Fell Over 36% in June
Motley Fool · 2026-07-08
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Launches Kubernetes Edge AI Appliances With Red Hat And Everpure
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-08
Supermicro Shares Gain Following Launch of Kubernetes Edge AI Appliance (SMCI)
InvestorsHub · 2026-07-08
Super Micro Drops 35% in a Month. What’s Next for SMCI Stock in 2026.
Barchart · 2026-07-08

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —