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Super Micro Computer, Inc.

SMCI · Technology · · USD
28.39 USD
+0.00 (0.53%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 17:11 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)

25
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 23
Momentum 41
Fundamental (0%) 67
Macro 71
Liquidity 33
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 40%
Trend & RS 23.2 20%
Momentum 41.1 20%
Fundamental 66.7 0%
Macro 71.2 15%
Liquidity 32.6 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 28.78
Stop Loss 23.74 (17.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 33.82 (+17.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 38.86 (+35.0%)
ATR(14) 2.52 (8.8%)
Risk per Share 5.04
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 79.7 +1.19
Momentum 41.1 -0.35
Quality 48.2 -0.07
Composite 56.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 14.9 28.0 -47% below
P/B Ratio 2.2 6.0 Below

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
59.22
vs
Market Price
28.39
Upside
+108.6%
Margin of Safety +52.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)7,554,357,276
Terminal Value PV30,753,228,480
Total Enterprise Value38,307,585,756

Assumptions

Base FCF983,247,002
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
11.35%
Full Kelly
5.68%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 25/100. Estimated win rate 48%, avg win 6.5%, avg loss 4.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
44.47
RSI(14)
-1.9589
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

8
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY → FLAT (+12.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High No (26d since high)
Sector Outperformance +7.5% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 44.47 NEUTRAL
Macd -1.9589 BEARISH
Ma Cross 33.43 / 34.57 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.07x LOW

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High62.36
Bollinger Upper34.52
SMA(200)34.57
SMA(50)33.43
SMA(20)29.77
Current Price28.39
Bollinger Lower25.03
52-Week Low19.48
ATR(14)2.52

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION C Confidence
100%
Spring (potential)
Acc: 2.5  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-06 Normal 0.48x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07 Normal 0.6x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 0.57x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 No Demand 0.52x Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest
2026-07-10 No Supply 0.07x Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 28.31 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 37.72 Base line
Senkou A 33.02 Leading span A
Senkou B 38.41 Leading span B
Cloud 33.02 – 38.41 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 28.78 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 47.42 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 25.03 – 34.52  |  KC: 26.31 – 33.24

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bullish RSI 4

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 31.25 Anchor: 2026-03-23 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -7.9%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/SMCI

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap18.36B
P/E (TTM)14.94
Forward P/EN/A
P/B2.25
EPS1.90

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth1.2%
Profit Margin3.7%
ROE17.9%
Debt/Equity120.80
Current Ratio2.65
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.94

Trading Data

28.39
Open
28.39
Day High
28.39
Day Low
2.57M
Volume (0.1x avg)

Recent News (8)

2 Mid-Cap Stocks with Impressive Fundamentals and 1 We Find Risky
StockStory · 2026-07-10
SMCI Stock Likely to Reverse from Oversold Levels as DCBBS Gains Growth Traction
Barchart · 2026-07-09
Super Micro Stock Just Collapsed 29% in a Month: Is It Time to Switch to Dell or Hewlett Packard Enterprise?
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-07-09
Is Super Micro Stock's AI Growth Story Worth the Cash-Burning Risk?
Trefis · 2026-07-09
Why Super Micro Computer Fell Over 36% in June
Motley Fool · 2026-07-08
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Launches Kubernetes Edge AI Appliances With Red Hat And Everpure
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-08
Supermicro Shares Gain Following Launch of Kubernetes Edge AI Appliance (SMCI)
InvestorsHub · 2026-07-08
Super Micro Drops 35% in a Month. What’s Next for SMCI Stock in 2026.
Barchart · 2026-07-08

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —